Are the Brexiteers about to be kicked out of Boris Johnson’s cabinet?

It was Vladimir Ilyich Lenin who, supposedly, came up with the term “useful idiots” to describe those too dim to realise that they are being used for some political purpose or other. There is some doubt as to whether Lenin in fact coined the term, or even used it, but it is useful shorthand nonetheless. It comes readily to mind when contemplating the ministerial reshuffle Boris Johnson is due to announce on Thursday.

For the rumours are strong that some of the most notable casualties will be the Eurosceptics courted by Johnson during his long quest for the premiership, then liberally rewarded with jobs in cabinet. Some of the most prominent members of the European Research Group were given senior positions – bought off – as a result of Johnson’s rise to power.

When Johnson cleared out the May cabinet last July, he made Priti Patel home secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg leader of the House of Commons, Theresa Villiers was sent to look after environment, and the business department was tossed to Andrea Leadsom, who herself once came improbably close to the leadership.

Without these figures as allies, Johnson would never have got his withdrawal agreement through parliament, thus, been able to “get Brexit done”, pave the way for his snap poll victory, and be prime minister today with a majority of 80-plus. Instead, without the likes of Rees-Mogg et al by his side, and their acquiescence in his betrayal of Northern Ireland, Johnson would by now be back to dashing off ill-considered “provocative” columns for The Daily Telegraph and The Spectator.

The prime minister, therefore, has a lot to thank his “allies” for. Yet politics is an ungrateful game, and Johnson and unusually ungrateful practitioner of that game. They will all, with the exception of Patel, very likely get dropped in the night-before-Valentine’s Day massacre. And no-one will much care, at least initially. In the case of the gaffe-prone panto figure of Rees-Mogg and the demonstrably useless Leadsom, their departure will be quietly welcomed in many sections of the party appalled by their lack of ability, including even those ideologically sympathetic to them. Even Leadsom’s attempt to defend herself with a public warning about sexism was particularly boneheaded. Johnson is no fool, and will be promoting the likes of Tracey Crouch, Penny Mordaunt and, less compellingly, Suella Braverman to senior positions to maintain the gender balance. Thus will Johnson demonstrate just how woke he is.

Other new, more glam figures with a more personal debt of gratitude to Johnson will be given big new jobs, notably Rishi Sunak. Sunak has been compared to a children’s TV presenter, but he is apparently a great favourite of the PM, and may have potential. Johnson’s once friend, then rival and now, well, who-knows-what, Michael Gove will be given another slug of work to do, on the green agenda and the COP 26 circus in November. Gove seems now to be treated with the same kind of not-quite-one-of-us attitude that he was by the Cameron-Osborne establishment, palmed off with the donkey work. We shall see how far he’s prepared to see Britain’s fisherfolk sold down the river when the time comes. Sadly, like Leadsom, Rees-Mogg, Villiers and the rest no one much outside the bubble would care if Gove got the chop. He’s not that popular out there.

Even so, the European Research Group could yet reform, regroup and renew its insurgency from the backbenches, and with added bitterness. What John Major called the “dispossessed” (ex-ministers) and the never-possessed (lifetime backbenchers) and assorted bastards could yet make trouble for Johnson. Even a majority of 80 is unsafe if your parliamentary party is dominated by radicalised Eurosceptics whose instinct for loyalty has long since disappeared. Rees-Mogg and his gang may yet exact some cold revenge.

Of course, the immediate question about the reshuffle is what it will teach us about the current degree of influence enjoyed by Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s svengali. Reportedly, he is in some comedic “power struggle” with the prime minister’s partner, Carrie Symonds – Spad v GF – who dislikes Cummings assertive style, and, we may guess, his builder’s cleavage as well.

The iconoclastic Cummings views most ministers and civil servants with disdain, and it’s cordially returned. Giving the chancellor, Sajid Javid, the sack, for example, would signal a Cummings ascendancy. Seeing ministers and civil servants go about their siloed duties as usual would signal that Cummings had outlived his usefulness, having helped to deliver a referendum and an election majority. Like the others, and still more across the casualty-strewn career of Johnson, Cummings may yet turn out to be just another useful idiot for the Lenin of Downing Street.