Joe Biden is setting up the fight over Roe v Wade as a central election issue

It is already clear that if the draft Supreme Court opinion overturning the landmark Roe v Wade judgment becomes a formal ruling, it will gut federal rights over abortion. The consequences will be far-reaching.

It is an issue upon which many Democrats and Republicans fundamentally disagree, a difference that can feel as wide as the Grand Canyon. And that means the decision will be leveraged by both parties.

Joe Biden set out the stall for the Democrats in his response to reports of the draft ruling, saying that his party would "be ready" for when any ruling is issued and that "basic fairness" means that Roe v Wade should not be overturned. In a number of tweets he also said that “it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November”. That is the month of the midterm elections at all levels of government, including Congress.

Abortion rights are just the type of issue that could fire up the Democrats’ supporter base to get out and vote later in the year. Protests over the leaked draft ruling show that. Democratic Party officials will have been worried by polling that has shown that Republican voters appear more motivated for getting out and voting later this year. According to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are certain to vote in November than Democrats – by a 10 percentage-point margin.

It is a long-running problem for an incumbent party, particularly one that has control of the major power levers in Washington – the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate (just) – as the Democrats do. The Republicans, looking to regain their position, have fewer fears about complacency.

Beyond the wider party issues, Biden himself could do with something to fire up the Democratic base. In a recent CNN poll, 8 in 10 respondents said that the government was not doing enough to try and fight inflation. A third of respondents approved of the president's management of the economy, while the approval rating for helping middle-class Americans – something that Biden has made a foundation of his political career – sat at 36 per cent.

So the president is in a tough spot. A fight about Roe v Wade, with a number of Democratic candidates across the country tweaking their election messaging to make it a central issue, might actually help Biden electorally come the midterms in November.