What Georgia wins would mean for Biden’s power in office

As things stand, the Democrats will shortly be in charge of both houses of Congress as well as the White House for the first time since 2010. It is an outcome that few would have thought likely during the high noon of Donald Trump in 2016. His populist nationalist revolution looked permanent, the deep cultural divisions in American society driving an ever more hateful, polarised politics. The hatred and the divisions haven’t gone away, but the counter-revolution seems to have been successful.  

So the danger is to read too much into the moment. The last Senate contests in Georgia were extremely tight, and, ironically, it may have been President Trump's erratic behaviour since losing in November that tipped the seats into the Democrats’ hands. Mr Trump is good at mobilising his base, but now the Democrats are becoming better at getting their vote out. Black votes matter after all, it seems. Joe Biden is simply not as scary as Donald Trump, and that has left him in a relatively strong position. Yet it is relative. Mr Biden can now lay claim to a marginally stronger mandate for his plans. That will help him deliver some modest reforms to Obamacare (which he helped get through Congress in 2010 when he was vice president). He will also be able to pursue a more aggressive campaign against Covid, and almost certainly be able to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord. As provided for by the constitution, the Democrats will control domestic policy, defence and the federal budget (via the House of Representatives) and treaty obligations and foreign policy through the Senate and the White House itself. Mr Biden’s cabinet appointments and other key jobs (such as new Supreme Court justices in due course) will also be more smoothly approved by Congress.  

But he will be no dictator, even if he were so inclined. The control of the Senate will sometimes depend on the casting vote of the vice president (ex officio president of the Senate), and only then if a couple of independents fall in with the Democrats and the support is solid. Congress, on both sides of the aisle, features some stubborn and unpredictable personalities. If Mr Biden tries anything too radical or runs up against a powerful vested interest he will find himself frustrated in any case. He will certainly lack the two-thirds majority needed to overturn a congressional veto. As an old hand and senatorial dealmaker himself, he well understands the limits of presidential power and the art of the possible.  

Senators and representatives, irrespective of party, also have a keen snout for the “pork” – crude territorial or crowd-pleasing bribes – that usually works itself into any bill, as was recently seen with the Defence Bill (even though on that occasion some fiscal conservatives were trying to restrain the president and the Trumpites on the Hill).  

Perhaps the more significant thing about the 117th Congress that will shortly start work is what it will not do. It will not further defund or dismantle Obamacare. It will not continue to fund an expensive but futile wall at the Mexican border. Most importantly for the democratic health of America, it will not support any attempts to suppress voter rights, end postal voting and undermine the integrity of the entire electoral process by labelling it corrupt and fraudulent. That is why the voting in Georgia mattered.