Joe Biden and the Democrats have reason to be nervous about the 2022 midterm elections

So far, 23 Democrats in the House of Representatives have said they won’t seek re-election, with less than a year to go until the midterm elections in November 2022 (when all 435 seats in the house will be up for election, as well as at least a third of seats in the Senate). Five of these announcements have come in December, and three of them – Stephanie Murphy of Florida, Lucille Roybal-Allard of California and Albio Sires of New Jersey – since Monday.

These are not the Christmas presents Joe Biden would have asked for, with the incumbent president’s party traditionally expected to lose seats in midterm elections. Democrats have sought to play up the fact that departures should be expected given that some voting districts will have been redrawn in the wake of information from the 2020 census. “I don’t believe it has anything to do with our prospects in 2022,” representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York told reporters when asked. “We’re going to hold the house, and we’re going to grow a majority. We’re going to do it because of extraordinary leadership.”

It is not just Democrats: around a dozen Republicans in the house have decided against running again. A number of house Democrats are looking to run for Senate, with five Republicans having announced plans to retire, including Richard Burr of North Carolina, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Rob Portman of Ohio. On the other side of the aisle, only one Senate Democrat, Patrick Leahy of Vermont, has so far said he is not running again.

With a very thin majority in the House of Representatives, and the Senate being 50-50 (with vice-president Kamala Harris breaking any ties), Biden and the Democrats will not want to lose any seats, given the difficulties the administration is having in getting legislation through Congress as it stands. The Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has shown the confidence some in his party are starting to feel, by openly talking about the West Virginia Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin, potentially changing parties. Manchin clashed with the White House when he said he could not vote for the Democrats’ key piece of legislation, the “Build Back Better” bill.

McConnell said Manchin “feels like a man alone” after torpedoing the big social and environmental spending package – and that if he were to switch parties, “he would be joining a lot of folks who have similar views on a whole range of issues”. It is unclear whether Manchin would be tempted to switch. He has always said he sees himself as a Democrat, but 2022 may end up being a difficult year for Biden and his party.