What’s the real story behind the record high asylum backlog?

Some 175,457 people were waiting for an initial decision on an asylum application in the UK in June, the highest figure since records began in 2010 and a rise of 44 per cent from a year earlier. The latest quarterly Home Office immigration statistics prompt further questions about whether Rishi Sunak will be able to deliver his pledges to “stop the boats” and clear the backlog of asylum claims. The data shows 80 per cent of people have been waiting longer than six months for an initial decision on their claim.

Right-wing Conservative MPs urged the prime minister to launch an urgent plan to “dramatically” curb legal immigration and honour the party’s 2019 manifesto promise to bring down net migration. But other Tories said the asylum backlog showed the government’s plan to detain and deport migrants crossing the Channel in small boats is “unrealistic”.

Is this all about people arriving in small boats?

No. Only just under half (46 per cent) of asylum applications were by people arriving in small boats. Nor are claims made only by “illegal migrants” as the rhetoric of some Conservative politicians suggests: seven in 10  (71 per cent) of initial asylum decisions in the year to June were granted refugee status, humanitarian protection or alternative forms of leave. This is substantially higher than in pre-pandemic years, when about a third of initial decisions were approvals.

How many people are claiming asylum?

There were 78,768 asylum applications in the year to June 2023, relating to 97,390 people (when families were taken into account). This is up from 66,384 applications involving 79,922 people in the 12 months to June 2022. However, it is lower than the figures for the year to December 2022 and to March this year, suggesting the numbers may have peaked.

How many claims are being withdrawn?

The figures confirm an earlier report in The Independent that asylum claims are being wiped off the system without being fully assessed to drive down the backlog numbers.

Withdrawals made up 47 per cent of all initial asylum decisions. Marley Morris, associate director for migration, trade and communities at the IPPR think tank, said: “In the long run, this could backfire on the government, as people whose applications are withdrawn end up being pushed underground or make fresh asylum claims.”

Why is the backlog growing?

The overall increase in pending cases was “due to more cases entering the asylum system than receiving initial decisions”, the Home Office said. It pointed to a rise of less than 1 per cent in the three months to the end of June as evidence that the growth in the backlog is slowing.

Mr Sunak has promised to “abolish the backlog of initial asylum decisions” by December. This was later clarified to make clear he was referring to so-called “legacy” cases that existed before June 2022. Critics have pointed out that this number can only go down but Thursday’s figures will fuel speculation that the PM may miss his target.

The Home Office insists there has been “an increase in the number of initial decisions made and an increase in the number of asylum decision-makers employed.” It says the “legacy backlog” has been reduced by almost a third by last December.

What else do the statistics reveal?

The cost of the UK’s asylum system has almost doubled in the year to June and now stands at £3.97bn. Ten years ago, it cost £500.2m. The number of work visas granted rose by 63 per cent in the year to June to 538,887 – due largely to a 157 per cent rise to 74,086 in health and social care visas.  The number of study visas was up 34 per cent to 657,208.

Is there any good news for the government in the figures?

Yes. The data suggests net migration in 2023 is likely to be between  200,000-250,000 below the peak of 606,000 in 2022, which included exceptional numbers from Ukraine. Migration from Hong Kong fell to 10,000 in the last quarter of 2022, after hitting 170,000 in the first two years.