What will it mean for Boris Johnson if the 21 June lockdown easing date is missed?

Although somewhat more optimistic at Prime Minister’s Questions about the government’s Covid roadmap, in recent days Boris Johnson has been a striking a cautious tone about the next significant date, 21 June. This is the moment when, according to the official roadmap guidance, “the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact”. Specifically: “We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.”

Much obviously depends on how effective the vaccine programme will be against the spreading Indian variant of the coronavirus, which is becoming more prevalent. Last Friday the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, gave this assessment of the danger: “There is now confidence ... that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (Kent variant), now the question in practical terms over the next two to three weeks is is this somewhat more transmissible than B.1.1.7 or is this a lot more transmissible and that will have implications for the long-term prospects of this epidemic in the UK and indeed the pandemic internationally?”

Now, the prime minister says that there is “increasing confidence” about the vaccines’ ability to fight the virus, and to prevent severe illness in individuals. The evidence will need to be sifted carefully in the coming days. It will come from the piloted mass outside events; from an analysis of the general relaxation measures already taken; about the effects of more international travel; about trends in infection, hospitalisation and deaths; the geographical spread from the hot spots; the efficacy of the vaccines for Indians and the wider community; and a more precise idea about the specific characteristics of the Indian virus.

Mr Johnson told the Commons: “We’ve looked at the data again this morning and I can tell the House we have increasing confidence that vaccines are effective against all variants, including the Indian variant.” On the wider, national picture, he was backed up, on this occasion, by epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson: “There’s a glimmer of hope from the recent data that whilst this variant does still appear to have a significant growth advantage, the magnitude of that advantage seems to have dropped a little bit with the most recent data.” Even so, Matt Hancock reports that the race between the vaccine and the Indian variant is getting a whole lot closer. Matters appear to be in the balance.

Politically, the question is what will happen if the 21 June date is missed. It would certainly come as a disappointment, to put it mildly, to the public, who’ve been through so much and who would no doubt react badly to a postponement or radical scaling-back to the planned unlock. The more upbeat ministers and officials sound in the coming weeks, the greater the backlash is likely to be if the time does come for the prime minister to bow to the inevitable and amend the roadmap. It would be a significant U-turn. He can, as ever, claim that his critics are playing their usual “Captain Hindsight” games, but this will be less credible given the high-profile of debate about the 21 June unlock that is already under way. But the prime minister will have a more immediate problem with his own backbenchers, increasingly restive about the lockdowns, on economic and civil liberties grounds.

Bouncing forward, as he would say, from the Hartlepool by-election and mostly good local election results, Mr Johnson starts in a strong position. He could, in fact, withstand a very large rebellion on his own side because of that, and in any case avoid defeat in the Commons on his lockdown measures because Labour is almost certain to support him (and perhaps also the SNP and the Liberal Democrats). Unlike Theresa May, say, whose constantly missed Brexit deadlines and parliamentary defeats become something of a sour joke, Mr Johnson will be able to carry parliament and avoid the scorn heaped on his predecessor. He did, after all, win a substantial majority in the December 2019 election, has few credible rivals, and has hardly started work on his “levelling up” and “build back better” projects. Yet he cannot rely forever on the confidence of his party or the country. As a “transactional” sort of politician, Mr Johnson does very much depend on delivering results. If he falters on 21 June, and fails to “get Covid done”, he will once again enter uncharted territory.