Why fresh warning of Northern Ireland terror attacks should come as no surprise

The warning from police in Northern Ireland of the threat posed by dissident republicans during the Good Friday Agreement commemorations comes in the wake of similar alerts about possible attacks.

MI5 has raised the terrorist threat level in Northern Ireland to “severe” – meaning that attacks are highly likely – after the shooting of a police officer and other attempted murders, and as the 25th anniversary of the historic deal that ended 30 years of the Troubles approaches.

Chief Constable Simon Byrne gave quite a specific account to the Northern Ireland Policing Board of where the violence might take place (Derry), when (Easter Monday), and what might unfold – street protests that could be used as cover to lure officers into ambushes. Assistant Chief Constable Bobby Singleton said: “We have very strong community intelligence about this,” adding: “We will be prepared for all eventualities on Monday.”

The Police Service of Northern Ireland has activated Operation Inspire, a contingency plan to counter large-scale law and order challenges, which involves a high presence on the streets and the monitoring of suspects. Around 350 officers drawn from different parts of the UK are due to bolster the force.

Sinn Fein’s policing spokesperson, Gerry Kelly, acknowledged the threat from dissidents while insisting that “they are a small number of people intent on reversing the peace process, the political process, and all of that for no good reason. The vast majority of people across the North, and across Ireland and elsewhere, are absolutely against them, so they do not have any support base.”

The coming days, however, will give the dissident militia an opportunity to attempt an operation, with international attention on Northern Ireland guaranteeing widespread publicity.

Extensive celebrations are being planned alongside a visit by US president Joe Biden. The presence of Mr Biden will be a reminder of the key role the US played in bringing to an end the vicious internecine strife that led to the loss of 3,700 lives. Bill Clinton, under whose administration the agreement was brokered, will also be present, as will his wife Hillary.

The anniversary comes after another landmark moment – the formal signing off of Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, the Windsor Framework, which brought an end to the trade problems created by the Northern Ireland protocol.

Mr Biden’s appearance is also being seen as a seal of approval for the Brexit breakthrough. The US administration has repeatedly stressed that maintaining the Good Friday Agreement is an inviolable condition of various bilateral issues involving the UK, not least a vital post-Brexit trade deal. Mr Biden frequently mentions his Irish heritage, while the Irish National Caucus remains the most powerful lobby group in the US Congress.

A terrorist attack in the current climate would have a huge impact politically, and could destabilise an already fragile security situation at a time when Northern Ireland remains at a political impasse, with no government in place. That is due to the decision of the Democratic Unionist Party, which opposes the Windsor Framework, to withdraw from the power-sharing administration at Stormont.

Attacks carried out by dissident republicans have received little coverage outside Northern Ireland. Many that were planned have been foiled by the police and security services, but some have been successful. Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot in Omagh in February. Masked gunmen attacked him as he finished a football training session he ran for children in the town in County Tyrone. He remains seriously ill. Thirteen people have been arrested in connection with his attempted murder.

The New IRA claimed responsibility for the attack on DCI Caldwell, as well as an attempt to kill two police officers with a bomb in Strabane last November. The group has been linked to a number of murders, including that of the journalist and author Lyra McKee in 2019.

Liam Kelly, the chair of the Northern Ireland Police Federation, wonders why the threat level was even reduced. “Frankly, no one should be surprised by this latest MI5 intelligence assessment, which acknowledges the extent of the challenge,” he commented. “One might reasonably ask why it was downgraded to ‘substantial’ in the first place when it was clear dissident republican groups were still actively wedded to causing murder and destruction.”