North-south divide to deepen unless drastic action taken, warns ex-civil service chief

Dramatic divisions between London and the rest of the UK are set to widen unless drastic action is taken, according to the former head of the civil service.

Lord Kerslake branded previous efforts to reduce stark regional inequalities as "sticking plasters" and warned that divisions were growing, causing "disturbing disparities in people's life chances".

The former mandarin argued that tackling the north-south divide could help to heal tensions exacerbated by Brexit and restore trust in politicians, in a foreword to a new report by the UK2070 Commission, an independent inquiry into regional inequalities.

The report also drew comparisons between the scale of the UK’s regional disparities and German reunification in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War.

People and businesses in the north of England are likely to miss out on the benefits of growth, while quality of life could suffer in London and the south east due to increased living costs, the preliminary report found.

It estimated more than half of future job growth will go to London and the south east, which accounts for just over a third of the UK's population.

Meanwhile, one in four children live in the most deprived areas, where healthy life expectancy is 19 years lower than the most affluent areas due to economic under-performance and lack of access to opportunity, leading to a growing benefits bill and a £4.8bn annual cost for the NHS brought on by poorer health.

It found that a child poor enough to qualify for free school meals in Hackney is still three times more likely to go to university than its peer in Hartlepool in County Durham.

Lord Kerslake said: "The UK’s regional inequalities are well-known and there have been many well-intentioned efforts to address them.

"Despite these initiatives, these inequalities are widening, and our inquiry suggests that most policy responses have been like pea-shooters or sticking plasters – too small, short-lived or disjointed to have a lasting impact.

"The result is that in 2019 the UK suffers both stark differences in performance within a comparatively compact economy, and disturbing disparities in people’s life chances."

He argued that a "radically different approach" was needed to prevent the inequality gap continuing to grow, including a 25-year National Renewal Fund, and the creation of four new 'super regional' economic development agencies.

​Without those actions, the commission suggest that London will continue to pull away from other regions, with jobs growth, resource demands and cost pressures running so far ahead of other areas that its growth ceases to benefit the rest of the country.

Lord Kerslake, who previously urged the government to stop the clock on Brexit, added: “Societal challenges like technology and the environment are looming, and we are currently going through a particularly divisive phase in our national political life.

"Reorganising ourselves and reinvesting regionally, whilst also sustaining London’s strengths, could prove a powerful force in bringing a disunited kingdom back together and helping it face the future."

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell described the report as a "devastating indictment of years of failure" by those managing the economy.

“We have a country riven by inequalities of income, gender, ethnicity, life expectancy and environment," he said.

“The consequences for the long-term health of the UK and its politics are stark."

A further report will be published in the autumn after a public consultation, with a final report in January 2020.