North Shropshire by-election: Fears Omicron – and weather – could skew result by causing low turnout

They have had to fight a by-election while repeatedly defending – or at least attempting to mitigate – a prime minister mired in questions of sleaze, rule-breaking and incompetence.

Now Tory activists in North Shropshire are increasingly fearful of two more factors above and beyond Boris Johnson’s conduct that may contribute to the party losing this traditionally safe seat on Thursday: omicron and the weather.

Local blues are worried that growing concerns about the spread of the Covid-19 variant, along with forecasts of appalling rain, could lead to a historically low turnout.

And they reckon that fewer people voting would disproportionately hurt their candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst – and help the Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan, secure an astonishing victory here.

Roy Aldcroft, the Conservative mayor of Market Drayton and a ward member of the Tory-led Shropshire council, said: “The polling stations will be Covid-secure and I would encourage everyone to exercise their right to vote for the best candidate.

“But there are certainly people saying they will probably stay at home because they are disillusioned with politics and with the prime minister. You couple that with omicron and winter weather and it gives people those extra reasons to not make the effort.”

That, he reckons, would hurt the Tories more because they are the biggest party here, with more to lose.

By rights, the by-election – called after the previous Tory MP, Owen Paterson, resigned amid a lobbying scandal – should have been a blue stroll. The party has a near-23,000 majority and has held the area for pretty much 200 years.

Yet, while local activists remain confident of victory, they say the job has been made intractably more difficult by a series of scandals and missteps in Downing Street – most notably the prime minister’s apparent attempts to cover up a potentially illegal staff Christmas party.

Now the suggestion that omicron might result in a reduced voter count has left Tories nervously considering the numbers.

“By rights, we should have enough support to get over the line,” one activist told The Independent. “The problem is it’s our natural voters who are the ones telling us they might stay away, [while] the opposition vote is energised precisely because they think they can win.”

Lib Dem campaigners, however, said they did not agree with the analysis. Because the current majority is so big, traditional Tory voters staying away would do their party no good, they say.

“If people want to send this government a message, we actively need them to come out and switch,” a source said. “It’s a mountain we’re climbing and we can do it – but that does require a good turnout.”

The yellow-rosette party is now favourite to win the contest with every major bookie, as reported by The Independent on Friday.