Norris rally sets Livingstone on knife-edge

Ken Livingstone's battle to retain his post as Mayor of London today is on a knife edge after a late challenge by the Tories, an opinion poll shows.

Ken Livingstone's battle to retain his post as Mayor of London today is on a knife edge after a late challenge by the Tories, an opinion poll shows.

A relatively low-key contest finally sprang to life when a YouGov survey for London's Evening Standard showed that, when voters' second preferences are taken into account, Mr Livingstone is on 51 per cent and the Tory candidate Steve Norris on 49 per cent, among those certain to vote.

The poll suggests Mr Livingstone's decision to return to the Labour fold after winning the Mayor's job as an independent four years ago may have backfired. Losing would be a big surprise and a bitter blow for both him and Tony Blair, who ate humble pie by readmitting Mr Livingstone to his party in the hope of avoiding a humiliating defeat in the election.

London will be a key battleground at the next general election because it has 74 parliamentary constituencies. At the last election Labour won 55 seats, the Tories 13 and the Liberal Democrats six.

The mayoral election, the result of which will be annnounced tomorrow night, could be decided by second preferences. Under the supplementary vote system, people can cast two votes and, if no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the votes, the top two candidates go into a run-off. The second preference votes of people who backed the eliminated candidates are added to the first round votes of the top two to decide the winner.

YouGov found that Mr Livingstone has 37 per cent of the first preference votes, Mr Norris 26 per cent and the Liberal Democrat candidate Simon Hughes 17 per cent. When the second preference votes are counted, Mr Livingstone is on 55 per cent and Mr Norris 45 per cent. But among those people who said they were certain to vote today, the figures are 51 per cent and 49 per cent respectively, making the contest much too close to call.

The result could hinge on the turnout, which Labour fears will be low, with many of the party's traditional supporters reluctant to back it because of the Iraq war. Yesterday Mr Livingstone issued a final appeal for people to vote, urging those backing the Liberal Democrats and Greens to make him their second preference to see off the Tory threat.

He said: "I have always said over-confidence or apathy would make the election much closer than people thought. London has a progressive majority for continuing the type of policies I have started. It would be a disaster for those Londoners to wake up after the election to find they have a Tory mayor, when they would never have allowed it to happen if they had thought it possible."

A spokesman for Mr Norris said: "This is a two-horse race. There is only one way to beat Livingstone and Labour: that is to vote Norris for a safer London. The poll shows it's neck and neck, but we are taking nothing for granted."

The YouGov survey is a setback for the Liberal Democrats, suggesting Mr Hughes will fail to make the run-off against Mr Livingstone. But had he done so he could have won, since he could have overtaken Labour with second-preference votes.

Lord Rennard, the Liberal Democrats' chief executive, said: "We believe Simon Hughes is moving up fast. Even this internet survey shows if he gets to second place he remains the only candidate who can beat Ken Livingstone."