Nigel Farage is now an MP – could he really become prime minister by 2029?

Nigel Farage has finally enjoyed success in a general election, becoming the MP for Clacton on his eighth time standing for a Westminster seat.

Exactly one month after returning as leader of Reform UK, the arch-Brexiteer stormed to victory in the seaside Essex seat.

He was elected with 46.07 per cent of the vote, while Reform’s Lee Anderson, Richard Tice and Rupert Lowe also won seats in parliament.

The four MPs will form a tiny group in the Commons, but Mr Farage has always had an outsized influence on British politics. And with a foothold now in the corridors of power, The Independent looks at whether Mr Farage’s next steps could see him become prime minister by 2029.

Follow The Independent’s live coverage of the 2024 general election

open image in gallery

What has he said about his plans?

Before the general election, Mr Farage said his long-term goal was to run for prime minister in 2029. He said: “That is our ambition. And we believe it is achievable.”

The Reform leader said he planned to establish a “bridgehead in parliament” and use that to “build a big national campaigning movement around the country for genuine change”.

And Mr Farage said that as the Conservative Party descends into post-election squabbling over its leadership, he and his Reform colleagues will provide the true voice of opposition to a Labour government.

How could he achieve his goal?

Mr Farage enjoys deep support in the Conservative Party, and one of the options he has mooted is pulling off a reverse takeover.

This would see the Brexiteer take advantage of its diminished standing and offer to merge Reform with the Tories to take the fight to Labour. Former Tory ministers Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, both seen as candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak, have said Mr Farage should be welcomed into the party in the future.

But unfortunately for Mr Farage, not all Conservatives are fans.

Home secretary James Cleverly is perhaps the most senior minister who has promised not to welcome him into the Conservatives, while Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker said he would only be let in if he “shut his party down”.

If he did join the Conservatives, it is expected he would be a force to reckon with in any leadership contest, with Tory bible Conservative Home suggesting seven in 10 of the party’s voters want him to join.

open image in gallery

Even as Tory leader, how could he win an election?

A potential prime minister Farage would have to defeat (most likely) incumbent Sir Keir Starmer in 2029 to take the keys to Downing Street.

And his success will likely depend on the success or failure of the Labour leader. A widespread backlash to the status quo has ushered in the rise of France’s anti-immigrant National Rally party in ongoing parliamentary elections there. The far right is on the rise across Europe as voters increasingly turn their backs on mainstream centrist parties.

It is an odd contrast, as one of Sir Keir’s top priorities as Labour leader has been dragging the Labour Party back to the centre after the far left leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, which saw it fall to its worst defeat since 1935.

Sir Keir has promised voters will feel better off after five years of a Labour government. But if they do not, those sold on the promise of “change” could well fall in line behind Mr Farage – and whichever party he ends up leading.

Will he do it, then?

It is a long shot, with bookies Star Sports giving odds of 10/1 ahead of the vote, but Mr Farage has pulled off election shocks before and cannot be written off.

With the scale of Labour’s majority, it seems impossible the party won’t be in power for at least two terms, but as the chaos from 2019 to today showed, the electorate is volatile.

For now, Mr Farage’s leadership ambitions may have to wait. The newfound MP will likely celebrate finally winning a seat in Westminster, but much more importantly will have to get on top of his constituency work, or he might not end up one long enough to take over the country.