Scotland’s Jacinda Ardern? Cabinet secretary Kate Forbes leads race to replace Nicola Sturgeon

Kate Forbes has been tipped as the natural successor to Nicola Sturgeon ever since she was elected to the Scottish parliament in 2016. Now that her former boss has created a vacancy, fervour around the 32-year-old finance secretary’s possible accession to the leadership looks set only to grow.

The Highlander and fluent Gaelic speaker won many admirers in 2020 after she became the first woman to deliver the Scottish Budget following devolution, having stepped in at the last minute to replace the finance secretary at the time, Derek Mackay.

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Ms Sturgeon resigned at a press conference at her official residence, Bute House in Edinburgh, on Wednesday, after leading the party for more than eight years. It is “right for me, for my party and for my country”, she said in a tearful address.

So who is Ms Forbes? And who else could replace Ms Sturgeon in the top job and lead the charge for Scottish independence? The Independent takes a look at the first minister’s most likely successors.

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Seen as the rising star of the party, the 32-year-old cabinet secretary for finance delivered the Scottish government’s budget in 2020 just hours after her predecessor, Mr Mackay, quit.

Widely admired for her grasp of complex issues, Ms Forbes is also a strong media performer.

She is currently on maternity leave, having given birth in August last year, but any transition period announced by Ms Sturgeon would allow her to return to Holyrood and run for the leadership.

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The popular Edinburgh Central MSP can boast a depth of experience, having spent many years at both Westminster and Holyrood. One leading bookmaker has already made him favourite to replace Ms Sturgeon, after the shock news that she is standing down.

Currently Scotland’s constitution secretary, Mr Robertson has been across the SNP’s big push to get a second referendum on independence.

Despite the recent disappointment caused by the Supreme Court ruling, Mr Robertson may well be able to convince the party faithful that he is best placed to fight the big political battles ahead.

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Scotland’s 37-year-old health secretary is also among the favourites to take over. Having led the country’s response to the Covid crisis, the popular MSP is one of the few figures widely recognised by the Scottish public.

However, the SNP administration’s record on the NHS has come under fire because of huge waiting lists and A&E waiting times.

A strong media performer, Mr Yousaf was considered favourite to take over until the rise of Ms Forbes and others at Holyrood.

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If the SNP decides it wants a safe pair of hands with strong economic credentials, then the 58-year-old deputy first minister may well get a look in.

The most experienced of the possible candidates, the MSP for Perthshire North has held most top jobs in the Scottish government – including a stint as finance secretary (effectively Scotland’s chancellor) for almost a decade.

But Mr Swinney’s previous leadership of the SNP will count against him. He led the party between 2000 and 2004 after Alex Salmond’s first resignation, and although widely respected among the SNP faithful, he was not felt to be charismatic enough to take the cause forward.

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The outspoken MP Joanna Cherry KC would only be an outside bet, having taken on the party leadership in both Edinburgh and London on a series of issues. Ms Cherry won respect as a leading figure in the fight against Boris Johnson’s illegal prorogation of parliament during the Brexit wars.

But she has been at odds with the SNP leadership in recent years – most notably on transgender issues. She has been a fierce critic of Ms Sturgeon’s legislation to make it easier to obtain a gender recognition certificate.

Ms Cherry is also part of a small group of MPs who have remained loyal to Mr Salmond, insisting that he should have been reinstated by the party after he was cleared of sexual assault charges.