Labour extends lead over Tories to 20 points in first poll of 2023

Labour has extended its poll lead over the Conservatives to 20 points in the first voting intension survey of 2023.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party is up one point on 47 per cent support while Rishi Sunak’s party is down two on 27 per cent, according to the Redfield and Wilton poll.

However, the same survey found that the prime minister is ahead of the Labour leader on questions of leadership and economic competence.

Some 38 per cent of voters believe Mr Sunak makes the best prime minister, while only 36 per cent believe Sir Keir would be the best PM.

The Tory leader is also narrowly ahead of his Labour rival on the question of who can best build a strong economy (40-33 per cent) and on “getting things done” (34-30 per cent).

But Sir Keir enjoys clear leads over Mr Sunak when it comes to representing change (41-30 per cent), bringing people together (42-28 per cent) and in “caring about people like me” (40-21 per cent).

It comes as Mr Sunak prepares to set out his vision for government in the year ahead during a speech on Wednesday afternoon, when he is expected to be grilled on the NHS crisis, widespread strikes and small boats crossings.

The PM is also under pressure over childcare, after Liz Truss’ allies warned No 10 not to ditch her promise to boost the level of free provision.

Senior Tory MP, chairman of the education select committee, said there is a “strong case for intervening further to support families” with childcare, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We haven’t yet seen the money flowing through.”

Mr Sunak will also set out his plan to ensure all pupils in England study some form of maths until aged 18, saying it was a “personal” mission to boost education standards.

Sir Keir is also expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday, setting out his vision for governing. Commenting on Sunak’s compulsory maths pledge, a Labour source said: “No 10 have revealed they have nothing to offer the country except ... double maths.”

It comes as a new report by the Best for Britain campaign group suggests Labour’s mammoth poll lead over the Tories is more fragile than previously thought.

The ‘Wavering Wall’ report found that the high proportion of wavering voters – those answering “don’t know” in voting intention surveys – lean heavily Tory and could back Mr Sunak’s party at the election expected in 2024.

Analysis of two large polls carried out by Focaldata show Labour is on course to win 517 seats at the next election. But that is cut to only 353 seats – a majority of just 28 – once the impact of “don’t knows” is factored in.

Meanwhile, polling experts have predicted that tactical voting at the local elections in May could see even worse results than expected for the Tories.

Prof Sir John Curtice suggests that a trend towards “anti-Conservative” tactical voting is likely to continue in the 2023 elections.

“That is one of the things we will certainly be on the lookout for in both directions, equally the Labour Party is benefiting from tactical switching by Liberal Democrats,” said Prof Curtice.

He added: “Of course, if that happens then the losses of seats in councils for the Tories may well be notably worse than you might expect.”