Labour leadership contest: Majority of public think Corbyn will beat Smith – but expect either to quit if they lose election

A large majority of people believe Jeremy Corbyn already has the Labour leadership contest wrapped up, a poll has revealed. It showed 60 per cent of the public think he will take victory, with men, women and people in every age, social and political group sure his victory is sealed.

The survey by BMG Research was set to bolster Mr Corbyn as he prepared for a crucial face-off hustings with rival Owen Smith, but it also brought more sobering news. Those questioned preferred Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May to both Labour contenders by an overwhelming margin when asked who they would want in Downing Street.

The poll also shows people expect whoever wins the Labour contest to quit if they lead the party to defeat at the next general election.

It comes with just days to go until ballot papers for the Labour contest are sent out, with the vast majority of voting expected the following week.

Asked who they think will win the leadership contest, 60 per cent of the 1,668 questioned said Mr Corbyn, with 40 per cent choosing Mr Smith. It follows other strong indications that the current Labour leader is on course to retain his crown, including him securing the backing of 285 constituency parties compared with 53 who nominated Mr Smith.

But when researchers pitched each of the Labour candidates against Ms May, asking, “Who would you rather be Prime Minister?” both Mr Corbyn and Mr Smith scored the backing of just 29 per cent of the public, with Ms May taking 71 per cent on both occasions.

Research director at BMG Research Dr Michael Turner said: “Interestingly, it appears that Ms May's play since becoming Conservative leader, to occupy the centre ground of British politics, is bearing fruit.

“She is now more popular with those who identify themselves as 'moderates' or 'centrists', ie, neither left nor right, which accounts for around half the UK adult population, than either candidate in the Labour leadership contest. She beats both Mr Corbyn and Mr Smith by a factor of around three to one.

“She is also more popular among those who identify as being ‘slightly left wing’, beating Mr Corybn relativity comfortably, by 59 per cent to 41 per cent, but only edging Mr Smith by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.”

The poll showed 54 per cent of people believe whoever wins the Labour leadership should step down if the party is later defeated at an election, while 21 per cent said they should not and 26 per cent did not know.

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell recently said it was “inevitable” he and the Labour Leader would step down following a general election defeat. But Mr Corbyn was later more equivocal, saying in an interview: “The party members control what happens. They will decide, one way or another.”

BMG Research interviewed a weighted sample of 1,668 adults across the UK online between 11-15 August. Data are weighted. Full details at www.bmgresearch.co.uk