Labour claims 'it's the economy, stupid' - but is it?

"It's the economy, stupid" is the mantra of Labour's election campaign. The phrase has been branded deep into the skin of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown since 1992, when Labour lost after failing to win trust on the economy - yet Bill Clinton won the US presidency, and had the slogan displayed at his campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas.

"It's the economy, stupid" is the mantra of Labour's election campaign. The phrase has been branded deep into the skin of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown since 1992, when Labour lost after failing to win trust on the economy - yet Bill Clinton won the US presidency, and had the slogan displayed at his campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas.

Mr Brown's price for returning to the forefront of Labour's campaign was for the economy to be its mainstay. Mr Blair was happy to pay it. He hopes the voters' trust in Mr Brown will be an antidote to their loss of trust in him. The two men, now on a two-day joint tour, feature on an economic "pledge card" and appeared together in last night's election broadcast. It almost seems as if Mr Blair is not let out without Mr Brown.

There is relief in Labour circles that the party's two biggest guns are fighting the election shoulder-to-shoulder. But there is a nagging and growing doubt at Labour headquarters: what if "it's the economy, stupid" no longer applies?

"There are fears people will pocket the economic stability we delivered and not thank us for it," said one senior Labour figure. "After eight years, they might take it for granted, and be more influenced by other issues."

Labour's problem is that immigration and crime are near the top of people's issues of concern. Labour has always judged that immigration is not a "vote switcher" but merely firms up the Tory core vote. Now party officials are starting to worry that, if people no longer vote on the basis of the economy and public services, they might have other issues on their minds.

So we will hear more from Labour on crime. Immigration is problematic. Some want a tougher line, others tougher rhetoric. "We can't vacate the playing field and let the Tories make all the runs," said one.

Labour has been struggling to ensure the economy dominates the election. "How do we make it sexy?" one figure asked me.

One answer is to make a "forward offer" and not rest on past laurels. So the party's manifesto will highlight how Labour would use its platform of economic stability to create "opportunity for all" and increase "social mobility". Mr Blair wants to create a "classless society" but can't call it that because John Major adopted the phrase in 1990.

However worthy, "social mobility" is unlikely to turn on the voters - at least, not in the way Labour seeks. When the Fabian Society conducted focus groups on the subject, ordinary people thought social mobility meant "social climbing".

The Tories reject Mr Blair's charge that they are running away from a debate on the economy. But it does seem they have made a pretty sober judgement that there are few runs to be scored on that wicket. As one Tory strategist put it: "Labour may be fighting the last war."