Labour in danger of losing votes for being too pro-Brexit, top pollster warns

Labour is danger of losing votes for being too pro-Brexit, new polling suggests – as Keir Starmer faces growing calls from within his party to shift its EU policy.

New polling seen by The Independent shows that Tory voters would be significantly more likely to back Labour if the opposition committed to reversing the hardest parts of the government’s Brexit settlement.

Senior pollsters say Labour could start shedding votes to the Lib Dems or Greens if it is seen as insufficiently pro-European.

And pro-European Labour MPs say the results are evidence against the “received Westminster wisdom” that backing a hard Brexit is somehow a vote winner.

But it comes as Sir Keir recommits the party to keeping Britain outside the customs union and single market, and again rules out bringing back free movement of people.

Labour has a commanding lead over the Tories in the polls – but there is growing evidence that the party’s Brexit policy could start to become a liability at an election.

Deltapoll asked voters whether they would be more or less likely to back Labour if the opposition gave EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, and if they promised to align the British economy with EU rules.

They found that 16% of 2019 Tory voters would be more likely to vote Labour if it backed the policies – with just 9% saying they would be less likely. The rest said their vote would be unchanged.

The policies were also popular in seats gained by the Tories at the 2019 election – which Labour wants to win back.

Crucially, 26% of people who voted Labour in 2019 said they would be more likely to vote Liberal Democrat if they endorsed free movement and single market membership.

Veteran pollster Peter Kellner, who oversaw the survey, told The Independent: “There are two sides of this coin: not only does Labour gain more than it loses from adopting these policies. I think it’s in real danger of losing especially younger progressive voters.

“If there’s a more pro-European party and Labour are perceived as far too cautious on Europe, Labour is in real danger of losing some of these progressive pro-European, younger voters to the Lib Dems or the Greens.”

Mr Kellner said that while many of these disgruntled voters would likely end up backing Labour in close races with the Tories, not all of them would – and that this could be enough for the Tories to hold on in some areas.

“Even if just a thousand of them, or two thousand, withhold their votes from Labour because they’re not significantly inspired by Labour on issues like Europe, this could make a difference between just winning and just losing a number of marginal seats.

“I don’t think Labour is at risk of losing any significant number of voters from a more pro-European stance; they are in danger of losing votes from an excessively cautious stance, and I think those are the twin messages from this poll.”

Stella Creasy, the Labour MP who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe, which commissioned the polling, said her party could win more votes at the next election by promising to “act before the problems Brexit has created are irreparable”.

“This data shows that contrary to received Westminster wisdom, the British public want to see politicians tackling the damage they know Brexit is doing through practical policies that address the impact it has had on our ability to work, travel and trade – and that it will influence who people vote for at the next election,” she told The Independent.

“With businesses giving up exporting, jobs going overseas already and coaches of kids stuck at our borders there’s only a limited window in which to act before the problems Brexit has created are irreparable.

The Walthamstow MP said the polling showed that the public agreed that if “Labour prioritises measures like this it can rebuild our relationship with our neighbours for the benefit of British workers and businesses”.

But pro-European forces in Labour face an uphill struggle to shift party policy. The leadership has tried to neutralise Brexit as an issue by ruthlessly shedding promises to rewrite the Brexit settlement.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir wrote in Brexit-supporting newspaper the Daily Express: “Britain’s future is outside the EU. Not in the single market, not in the customs union, not with a return to freedom of movement. Those arguments are in the past, where they belong.”

But he warned against “pretending everything is going fine or ducking hard conversations”.

Sir Keir has said Labour will “make Brexit work” and has promised a series of relatively small tweaks to the Brexit settlement: signing a veterinary agreement, asking the EU for mutual recognition of professional qualifications, and seeking a new European security pact.

The new polling paints a backdrop of increasing pessimism about Brexit’s impact on the UK economy, jobs and living standards.

Deltapoll found that 53% of voters now think Brexit has had a negative impact on these things, with a dwindling minority of just 15% saying it has had a positive impact – in the face of price rises and labour shortages.

Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservative government has dialled down its previously staunch anti-EU rhetoric, seeking a degree of rapprochement with Brussels.

Mr Sunak faced calls of betrayal from hardline Brexiteers after he signed a new agreement to resolve problems on the Northern Irish border.

In contrast to his predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, he has also done less to pick regular fights with Brussels, hailing a “new chapter” of relations with the bloc.

Labour declined to comment specifically on the polling and pointed to Sir Keir’s latest public statements on Brexit.