Where did Jeremy Hunt go wrong in the Tory leadership race?

Boris Johnson’s path to Downing Street was talked up in Westminster as a fairly safe bet from the early days of the contest.

Once the field was reduced to two candidates, Jeremy Hunt mounted an energetic campaign to throw his rival off course, rolling up his sleeves, switching up his social media game and giving plenty of interviews. But by a hustings in Nottingham on 6 July, the doubts had clearly crept in.

It had been a tough day for Mr Hunt. The Times had splashed on a poll showing that nearly three-quarters of Tory members were planning to back his rival, just as ballot papers were dropping on to doormats across the country.

He joked to the audience that he needed all the help he could get to win the contest – but it was a hollow gag.

So what went wrong for the safe pair of hands? To begin with, Mr Johnson had evidently been mulling a leadership bid for a long time, so he was ready to go when the contest began. His top team was in place and efforts to court MPs in the tearooms and bars of Westminster had been going on for some time.

Crucially, his team was said to have reached out to the Conservative grassroots early – the very people who would be voting in the contest.

This may have given him an edge over Mr Hunt, at the beginning of what was a gruelling few weeks for everyone involved.

Mr Hunt funnelled his not inconsiderable energy into campaigning, giving interviews widely and attempting to appear open to the public.

By contrast, Team Johnson operated a “submarine” campaign with very few media appearances, bar his weekly Daily Telegraph column. This opened him up to criticism over dodging scrutiny – but, crucially, limited chances for him to make a costly blunder.

Mr Hunt, on the other hand, made several blunders during the final weeks of the race, including some ill-judged comments about bringing back fox hunting.

Fox hunting is red meat for the Tory grassroots, but the pledge sparked a row that no one within the party wanted to have. Tory MPs were dismayed that such a divisive issue was at the top of the news agenda when they were trying to reunite the party.

He also earned a reputation for flip-flopping, after coming out to say that a no-deal Brexit was “political suicide”, then shifting to say that he couldn’t rule it out and it would all be fine in the end anyway.

All the while, Mr Johnson glided by in his submarine.

In fairness to Mr Hunt, he faced an almost impossible opponent. Despite his flaws – and there are many – Mr Johnson has an ability to swerve things that have ended the career of other politicians.

And this election was only ever about Brexit. In another contest, Mr Hunt could have pinned Mr Johnson down on his lack of knowledge of the detail or his lack of ideas. But Mr Johnson has one bright idea – to leave the EU on 31 October – and that was all the members needed to hear.

So the final weeks of the contest saw Mr Hunt trying to catch up with his rival by aping his more extreme views. Mr Hunt, a Remainer who started his own business, is clearly not a pure no-deal supporter – and the members know it.

Ultimately, Tory members went with their hearts and not with their heads. As likeable as Mr Hunt is, Mr Johnson is the candidate to give the Tories hope after years in the doldrums.

Mr Hunt, who is seen by some as a “continuity May”, was too pragmatic and aware of the very real risks of a no-deal Brexit to compete with Mr Johnson's unbridled – and irrational – cheer. Mr Hunt unwittingly explained this better than anyone, when he accused Mr Johnson of “peddling optimism”. As if optimism was a bad thing.