Can the Independent Group – or Change UK – really make a real difference when it comes to Brexit?

On what should have been Brexit day, the MPs in the newly formed Independent Group have set out their stall.

Having jumped ship from their respective parties, the 11 former Conservative and Labour MPs sent shockwaves through Westminster with their promise of a different kind of politics.

Their move prompted huge interest, with anger from former colleagues jostling alongside curiosity from those left politically homeless by shifts in direction from both Labour and the Tories.

The TIGs, as they are known, have now applied to be an official political party called Change UK – The Independent Group, with former Tory MP Heidi Allen stepping up as interim leader.

Sources told The Independent they were forced to speed up their preparations to ensure they could field candidates in the European elections in May, as repeated defeats of Theresa May’s Brexit deal have cast doubt on whether the UK would be compelled to take part.

The would-be party is an interesting addition to the roiling Brexit cauldron, where old alliances no longer hold and Labour MPs back the prime minister while her own benches repeatedly rebel.

But could it make a real difference to the outcome?

Ms May’s lack of a majority – and inability to control her own backbenchers – heaps extra importance on the parliamentary arithmetic, and, when it comes to the numbers, the TIGs are a known quantity.

The three rebel Tories – Ms Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston – were all vocal supporters of a second referendum before resigning the party whip. Former frontbencher Chuka Umunna and his fellow Labour splitters were also unashamedly pro-European while still in Jeremy Corbyn’s party.

So the TIGs will not swing the balance either way but they do wield a different kind of power.

The Labour leadership is said to have been rattled by the loss of eight MPs in two days and the fear of further defections piles the pressure on party bosses to try to keep MPs in the tent.

Brexit was one of the key factors for Labour quitters so the leadership will be well aware of the need to keep wavering MPs on board. If Labour whipped its MPs to back a Final Say option during next week’s further indicative votes, then the idea would have a real shot.

In a way, it is perhaps the future of the TIGs that will be determined by Brexit, rather than the other way around. If the UK ends up with a long extension then the distrust among swing voters may count in their favour and give them a cause.

But they also need to stake ground on other issues or risk being drowned out. One MP involved said they would “deserve to fail if all we were was anti-Brexit” – advice they would do well to heed.

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