Four reasons the Tories shouldn't feel too smug – despite an incredible election result

While the Conservatives are celebrating a remarkable election result this morning, the truth is that strangely today is likely to be the high watermark of David Cameron’s next term as Prime Minister. He may have won – possibly with an overall majority but he is now at the mercy of his fractious and rebellious MPs.

In the last five years they didn’t matter because the Coalition with the Lib Dems gave him a stable and workable majority in the House of Commons – but no longer. He will now have to go it alone. So what does that mean?

The triumph of the SNP in Scotland and the Conservative win overall in the election brings the prospect of a second referendum that much closer. It is likely that Sturgeon will argue that the new state of affair means Scots should be entitled to new plebiscite soon rather than later – possibly making that it a pledge in the campaign for the Scottish Parliament elections next year. It is ironic that the Tory campaign in England was won by highlighting the threat of the SNP. But as a result the Conservative and Unionist Party may have just set in motion the eventual break-up of that union.

As a result of this election result we will now, almost certainly, have an in/out EU referendum to look forward to in 2017. This has huge consequences. Firstly it means that a huge amount of Cameron’s time between now and then will be spent trying to cobble a deal together in Brussels that he can put to the British public in the referendum. Whether other European leaders will give him what he needs is far from certain. And it will almost certainly not be enough for his own Eurosceptic backbenchers. The Tories are still horribly divided on Europe and this result will do nothing to unite them. It’s going to make John Major’s troubles over the Maastricht Treaty look like a walk in the park.

A whip in the last Government said that there were around 20 Tory MPs who were basically unmanageable and that has not changed as a result of last night’s result. These include Philip Davies who has objected to everything from gay marriage to banning smoking in cars with children, and sending books to prisoners. There is also a sizable number of his MPs who won’t want a third runway at heathrow and will object to anything the Government want to do on schools, education and even welfare.