What do the upcoming European Parliament elections mean for the UK’s political parties?

Exhausted MPs have gone back to their constituencies for Easter recess but despite the promise of an extension to Britain’s departure from the EU, any Brexit breather is likely to be short-lived.

Campaigning is already underway for the European Parliament elections, with the UK gearing up to head to the polls on 23 May – nearly two months after Brexit was originally due to happen.

Theresa May previously said the public would find it “unacceptable” to elect 73 MEPs to Brussels nearly three years after the Brexit vote.

But her hand has been forced, after MPs repeatedly voted down her Brexit deal and compelled her to seek a longer extension from European leaders at an emergency summit on Wednesday.

Brussels said elections must be held or the UK will crash out of the bloc without a deal on 1 June.

The prime minister still hopes to find a way through the impasse to allow the UK to leave the EU before next month but preparations for the elections must go on in the likely event she does not succeed.

While turnout can be low for European Parliament elections, next month’s vote is shaping up to be a fascinating and unpredictable contest.

Both Labour and the Conservatives are facing threats from smaller parties on different sides of the Brexit divide.

Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party could prove a serious threat to Tory electoral chances by winning votes from Conservative Eurosceptics, who are dismayed by delays to Britain’s departure and any whiff of compromise with Labour over customs.

Many Tory MPs are privately concerned about their chances and Conservative associations are said to be unhappy about spending money on elections that might not even take place.

On the other side, smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats and the newly-formed Independent Group (TIG) could threaten Labour, as its reluctance to commit to a Final Say vote may have cost it support from pro-Europeans.

As Europe tends to dominate voters’ minds in this sort of poll, both parties also face a challenging campaign seeking to reconcile pro and anti-Brexit factions in their own parties.

Indeed, a recent poll found the Brexit Party could scoop 10.3 per cent of the vote, behind the Tories on 23 per cent and Labour on 37.8 per cent.

Pro-EU parties were less popular, with the Liberal Democrats on 8.1 per cent and Change UK, the new name of the Independent Group (TIG), polling on 4.1 per cent, according to the Open Europe survey conducted by Hanbury Strategy.

The TIGs, who defected from the Labour and the Tories in protest over Brexit, will be wanting to make their mark on these elections – if their application to become a political party is approved in time.

All the parties face a tight schedule to select their candidates, and some sitting MEPs will undoubtedly have made plans for life after Brexit, so may not want to stand.

And it all could amount to nothing, as under the terms of the Brexit delay agreed in Brussels, the UK can pull out of the elections if the prime minister’s Brexit deal is ratified by 22 May.

It’ll be an expensive diversion if the UK does leave shortly afterwards, as the estimated cost of holding them is up to £109 million.

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