150,000 EU citizens could be left in Windrush-style immigration limbo, experts warn

As many as 150,000 or more EU citizens could be left in a Windrush-style immigration limbo because of holes in the government's EU settlement scheme, experts have estimated.

At a hearing of a parliamentary committee on Tuesday peers were told that those who were "digitally excluded, who lack evidential paperwork, are simply unaware of the scheme" would likely fall through the cracks.

The deadline to apply for settled status is just a month away on 30 June, though the Home Office has indicated that it will be flexible with accepting late applications.

Experts and representatives of EU citizens groups agreed that the scheme has largely been successful in reaching a large number of people, with over five million applications as of February this year.

But they warned that inherent problems with the registration approach taken meant that tens or hundreds of thousands of people would likely fall through the cracks.

"On the general estimated population figures of between 3.6 and 5 million [EU citizens living in Britain], even out of 1 per cent of people who don't apply to the scheme you're looking at 30,000 to 50,000 people – so certainly that would be a very significant group of people without a status," said Fiona Costello a research associate at Cambridge University.

Monique Hawkins, Policy Officer at citizens' group the 3million said there were reasonable grounds to suppose that the figure could be even higher.

"We can look at, for example, when television went from analogue to digital which was an extremely successful campaign and 97 per cent of people actually made the switch over in time. If this is as successful then 3 per cent would actually still represent over 150,000 people at the moment," she said.

"In terms of Windrush-type consequences for somebody who misses the deadline, the Home Office has indicated that they're going to take a relatively generous approach in allowing them to take a late application.

"However, until the application is granted – which could be months down the line – they do not have the right to work, the do they not have the right to rent, they could incur NHS charges ... so we're quite concerned."

She added that it would be "relatively easy" to change the law to prevent these things from happening and urged the government to act.

The hostile environment policy introduced by successive governments means that people increasingly have to prove their immigration status to access housing, work, and public services.

But because Britain has no national ID scheme people are often unable to prove their status. This caused major problems for the "Windrush generation" of immigrants who arrived in the UK in the 1950s.

Many of this group arrived on their parents' passports at a time when Commonwealth citizens had free movement to the UK, and their landing cards have since been destroyed by the Home Office in the intervening decades.

As such they lacked the documentation to prove their right to access basic services.

Campaigners worry that a similar thing could happen to EU citizens, who enjoyed free movement to the UK but now have to register and formalise their status for the new more bureaucratic regime.

Kate Smart, chief executive of the citizens' group Settled, told peers that the government had done well to get so many people registered.

"I would say the Home Office has done a remarkable job in the circumstances of helping millions of people through the system," she said.

But she added: "We know there are lots of people who haven't applied yet and we know there will be problems coming down the line whether they've got their status or not."