Eastleigh By-Election: Tories struggle to win arguments on the doorstep: Fowler dismisses third-place fears. Patricia Wynn Davies reports

'OH BLOODY HELL, David Hunt,' said an Eastleigh resident, removing Wednesday night's Tory rally leaflets from his windscreen. One took it he would not be voting Tory. 'No I won't. That bunch of crooks. . .'

Stephen Reid, the Tory candidate, will have to put up with plenty of that in the next fortnight. Just a few days into the by-election campaign, the principal topic of discussion is whether he or Labour's Marilyn Birks will come second to the Liberal Democrats' David Chidgey.

The rally addressed by Mr Hunt, the Secretary of State for Employment, went down well with the local party faithful. Mr Reid delivered a doughty address himself.

But as an out-of-work former data processing manager who lost his leadership of Basingstoke council in the local elections, one would have thought he had problems enough without volunteering for a by-election in which his own side has evidently so little faith.

Sir Norman Fowler, Tory party chairman, appeared supremely demob happy on a campaign visit this week to proclaim that Mr Reid was winning the arguments. 'Nah, we're not going to come third,' he said during yesterday's news conference. But he would not make any other predictions.

Unhappily for Mr Reid, who seems sincere and genuine, winning the arguments, at any rate on the doorsteps, is going to prove difficult. Most of the front doors in an owner-occupier estate of box- like houses in Bursledon remained firmly shut yesterday afternoon. The area is almost devoid of posters for any candidate, let alone for Mr Reid.

Those doors that opened included the usual unattended teenagers without a vote and new residents not on the register. One woman said: 'My husband normally goes down and does it.' Others are undecided and Mr Reid comes across one Liberal and one Labour supporter. As he reports the doorstep encounters he still looks enthusiastic, but has the air of a man commentating on his own funeral.

Things look up, however, by the end of the tour, with three thumbs-ups from the doorways and two from drivers stopping their cars to greet him.

Ms Birks, an energetic lecturer and mother of four, was having better luck canvassing in a former council estate in Bishopstoke.

She had chirpily declared at her morning news conference that she was sure she would come first. But the omens for her even coming second are not favourable.

There appears to be only one reported instance of the Tories coming third in a by- election where they formerly held the seat. There were more posters here, but many of them were for the Liberal Democrats.

Just 20 days ago, moreover, the Liberal Democrats romped home in the Bishopstoke ward's borough elections with nearly double the number of Labour votes.

(Photograph omitted)