Coronavirus: Two-metre rule could be relaxed for classes of up to 30 pupils, education secretary indicates

The two-metre social-distancing rule could be relaxed for classes of up to 30 pupils to allow the return of “every child in every school” to lessons in September, Gavin Williamson has indicated.

The education secretary suggested that the “protective bubbles” already used to permit 15 primary pupils to mingle without social distancing could be increased in size in the autumn so that all schools in England can reopen without the need for additional teachers and buildings. New guidance can be expected within two weeks, he said.

And Boris Johnson himself gave a strong hint that the two-metre restriction – already set to be reduced to one metre in Northern Irish schools – is on its way out, telling reporters to “watch this space”.

The bullish plan comes despite a warning from the prime minister’s scientific advisory group last month that opening primary and secondary schools risks creating “significant transmission networks” for coronavirus.

The experts cautioned that overconfidence about the effectiveness of the NHS Test and Trace system – designed to prevent the spread of Covid-19 by isolating the contacts of those known to be infected – could “quickly” lead to an increase in the crucial R rate of transmission to as high as 1.7, risking a loss of control over the spread of the disease.

Teaching unions have warned that schools will be unable to reopen fully under the two-metre rule due to shortages of classroom space and staff.

Neither Mr Johnson nor Mr Williamson would give a firm commitment to a return to the classroom for all primary and secondary children in September, describing it only as their intention.

And the education secretary dodged the question of whether he expected returning students to be offered a full school week.

Visiting a school in Hertfordshire on Friday, Mr Johnson said: “We will be putting in further changes as the science allows.

“I think that’s what the public also wants to see, they want to see us working with the reality.”

Amid growing pressure on the government following botched plans to return all primary school pupils to the classroom this month, the prime minister said it was “absolutely” his intention that children of all ages should be back on a five-day-a-week basis by the autumn.

“Let me be very clear,” he said. “I want a world in which, as far as possible, provided we can make classrooms safe – and I think we can – I want every child, every pupil, every student, back in September. I’m sure we can get it done.”

Speaking as the latest official figures recorded 173 new fatalities from Covid-19, bringing the total death toll to 42,461, Mr Johnson said the UK was “starting to make some real progress with test and trace, with treatments for the disease” and that he hoped people would be “much, much more confident” about sending their children to school by the autumn.

With the government’s Joint Biosecurity Centre reducing the coronavirus alert level from 4 to 3 – signalling that transmission is no longer regarded as high or rising exponentially – Mr Johnson added: “We have to start thinking of a world in which we are less apprehensive about this disease.”

However, minutes from a 21 May meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), released on Friday, showed that experts regard the full reopening of schools as a potential route to a second spike of infections in the UK.

Sage advised that “opening both primary and secondary schools had the potential to recreate significant transmission networks, which would have a large effect on the epidemic”.

The summer holidays gave an opportunity to “unwind” the effects of reopening, said the paper, which also noted that the relatively young age profile of most parents and teachers reduced the level of risk.

But it added that opening schools would require “a significant effort to ensure that environments are appropriate to minimise transmission (for example distancing and hygiene measures and ventilation)” and said that more work was needed to assess the risk to grandparents.

Stressing the importance for school reopening of a successful test, trace and isolate (TTI) programme, Sage warned that “overestimating the effectiveness of TTI capacity could lead quickly to R returning to 1.7”.

Mr Johnson’s chief medical and scientific advisers have repeatedly stressed that coronavirus can only be brought under control if R is kept below one, with the risk of exponential growth if it rises above this level.

Layla Moran, Liberal Democrat education spokesperson and leadership contender, said: “This stark warning shows that ministers must ensure the track and trace system is working properly so that our schools can reopen safely.

“It is deeply worrying that one in four people who test positive for coronavirus are currently being missed under the scheme.

“The government must clarify what action is being taken to fix these flaws and reassure parents, teachers and communities across the country.”

Protective bubbles have been used in three primary-school year groups since the start of this month to allow up to 15 children to be taught together without social distancing, with each mini-class having the same teacher and working in the same space at all times, and contact with other groups kept to a minimum.

But attempts to get more children back to school for a month’s learning before the summer break foundered on the practical difficulties of applying this to whole schools.

Setting out his plans at the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing, Mr Williamson said: “We’ve been creating bubbles of children in the classroom, creating a protective environment for those children.

“Currently that is at 15, what we would be looking at doing is expanding those bubbles to include the whole class.”

Mr Williamson said the government wanted to bring “every child back, in every year group, in every school”. But when pressed, he did not confirm that this would mean a full five-day week for all pupils

“We recognise there is still going to have to be protective measures put in place to make sure children are safe and make sure that teachers and all those who work in school are safe as well, and that is why we are going to be issuing further guidance in the next two weeks,” he added.

The announcement came shortly after the Department for Education unveiled a £1bn “Covid catch-up plan” for personal tutoring and extra time in school for children at risk of falling behind because of missed lessons during lockdown.

But the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, Geoff Barton, said schools and colleges were trying to prepare for September amid an “information black hole” from the government.

“Everybody wants to see all children back in schools full-time from September,” he said.

“In order for this to happen, the current government guidelines would need to change because it would not be possible to do this while limiting class sizes to 15. You would need twice as many classrooms, and twice as many teachers.”