True number of UK coronavirus deaths still unknown

Experts have admitted that the true number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK remains unclear, as official statistics on patients dying in hospitals dipped to their lowest for two weeks.

Describing the fall as “encouraging”, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, appeared to signal increasing official confidence that the outbreak has passed its peak and will soon allow a shift in the government’s approach, as he told the daily Downing Street press conference that the UK can now look forward to the “next stage” of the battle against Covid-19.

But he warned it was too early to start lifting lockdown restrictions, declaring: “There is light at the end of the tunnel, but we are not there yet.”

The chancellor’s comments came as it emerged that Boris Johnson has urged caution over the premature lifting of social distancing measures. The prime minister told senior ministers and advisers at a meeting at Chequers on Friday that this would risk a damaging second wave of the virus.

Public Health England (PHE) medical director Yvonne Doyle said that Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures from the early weeks of the pandemic suggested that around 10 per cent of total Covid-19 deaths were taking place outside of hospitals – many in care homes – at that point. She was unable to rule out the final figure being as much as 40 per cent higher than the hospital tally suggests.

Weekly mortality figures for England and Wales, to be published by the ONS on Tuesday, will reveal the total number of Covid deaths in the seven days to 10 April, when reported fatalities in hospital peaked at 980 in a single day.

The new statistics will provide an important marker of the extent to which the killer virus was spreading unnoticed in care homes and hospices during that period, and indicate whether the same success was being achieved in “flattening the curve” of infection in the community as inside hospitals.

Prof Doyle told the No 10 press conference that it was “undoubtedly” the case that the data on deaths with Covid-19 symptoms in hospital, released each day by PHE, “don’t tell the whole story of total deaths” and that the ONS figures would give a more “comprehensive” view.

Challenged over whether the final death toll could be as much as 40 per cent higher than suggested by the PHE figures, which have so far recorded 16,509 fatalities, Prof Doyle said: “I don’t know whether 40 per cent is a correct figure. I couldn’t really say that. We know from looking at the pattern that nine out of 10 deaths do occur in hospital.”

The burden of mortality outside hospital will not be “evenly spread” across the country, with variations depending on the concentration of care homes and hospices in particular areas, she said.

The 449 coronavirus deaths in hospital on Sunday represented the lowest daily total since 6 April and the second day in succession of declining figures.

However, previous data has regularly shown a “weekend effect” as figures on hospital admissions and deaths take longer to feed through.

The 3,023 positive tests on patients and critical workers in hospital and PHE labs was the lowest since 31 March – down from a peak of 5,903 on 5 April.

And the number of hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in hotspot London continued a decline which has now lasted seven days, as more patients were discharged than admitted. Bed use across Britain was described as “stable”.

Deputy chief scientific adviser Angela McLean voiced “relief” that numbers of infections were “pretty much stable and flat”, rather than showing the steep upwards climb of the early days of the outbreak.

But Mr Sunak reinforced official signals that any easing of lockdown restrictions remains some time away, saying “we are not there yet”.

The chancellor said: “As we look forward towards the next stage of our battle against this disease, there are encouraging signs that we are making progress.

“But before we consider it safe to adjust any of the current social distancing measures, we must be satisfied that we have met the five tests set out last week by the first secretary [Dominic Raab].

“Those tests mean that the NHS can continue to cope; that the daily death rate falls sustainably and consistently; that the rate of infection is decreasing; that operational challenges have been met; and most importantly that there is no risk of a second peak.”

Ministers remain focused on the message that the public should stay at home to protect the NHS, said Mr Sunak, adding: “Anything else that people might be speculating on is wrong, we are crystal clear on that message.”

Oxford University structural biology professor James Naismith said it was clear that the UK had passed the peak of the first wave of coronavirus.

“Although we have clearly passed the peak of the announced hospital deaths in this first wave, 449 deaths can never be thought of as any other than very sad news,” said Prof Naismith.

“The UK has been one of the hardest hit countries in this first wave and we still have to add in deaths from care homes and wider community. It is urgent that we learn what can be applied here so we do better”.