Coronavirus: Boris Johnson says worst of crisis over in three months if people follow the rules

Boris Johnson has claimed the UK can “turn the tide” against the outbreak of coronavirus within 12 weeks, but stoked confusion as he admitted moments later the country may not be on a “downward path” by the end of June.

In a sometimes shambolic daily press conference at 10 Downing Street, the prime minister attempted to take an upbeat tone as he offered a glimmer of hope to people facing the prospect of months shunning bars, restaurants and social occasions, but was unable to say precisely what progress he expected to be made over the coming three months.

Speaking alongside chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance, the prime minister announced that the first British patient had entered randomised trials for drugs to treat Covid-19. And he revealed that UK scientists expect to start trials on a vaccine within a month, while Public Health England may soon have antibody tests which could be a “total gamechanger” in transforming understanding of the disease.

He repeated his plea for individuals to observe “scrupulously” the social distancing and self-isolation advice issued earlier this week, but dismissed suggestions that the government was planning a draconian Paris-style lockdown for London.

Declaring that new home-testing kits could allow tests to be increased to 250,000 a day, the prime minister said: “We can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident we can send coronavirus packing in this country if we take the steps outlined.”

His remarks came as the UK death toll of patients who had tested positive for Covid-19 reached 144, with 3,269 confirmed positives across the country, while the Bank of England slashed interest rates to a new historic low of 0.1 per cent in the latest stage of the effort to stem economic meltdown.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected on Friday to announce further measures to protect wages and jobs, after talks with businesses and unions amid a swiftly rising tally of job losses.

The Queen issued a message to the nation, urging people to “come together to work as one” at a “period of great concern and uncertainty”. And the government published an emergency coronavirus bill, expected to be nodded through parliament next week, to give ministers far-reaching powers to detain those thought to be infected, to close ports and airports and allow retired doctors back onto the wards.

Downing Street aides said that a number of companies with a proven track record of medical success had come forward with potential tests to not only confirm infections but also detect antibodies that show which individuals have had the illness but recovered.

Public Health England is in negotiations now to buy the test which will give scientists vital information about how the virus has circulated, as well as taking pressure off the NHS by allowing the return to work of medics who have self-isolated after showing symptoms.

It will need to be trialled first but could be used like a home pregnancy test using blood rather than urine, with kits sent out in the post for people to use at home.

“If it works as its proponents claim, we will buy hundreds of thousands of these kits, because this has the potential to be a total game changer,” said the prime minister.

As China announced its first day with no new local cases, the prime minister’s optimism that the country could be over the worst of the epidemic in three months’ time contrasted significantly with caution from the experts alongside him.

Sir Patrick Vallance has previously warned the UK would be in the grip of the virus for the “long haul” and repeated today that it was “not possible” to put absolute timelines on the pandemic. And Prof Whitty said he believed it was “improbable” the virus could be eradicated permanently.

Asked how much progress he expected within 12 weeks, Sir Patrick told the Downing Street press conference: “We are absolutely at the beginning of this, where the measures in place should start having an impact on the rate of growth of the epidemic. Many of those are significant measures and they are expected to delay and break transmission chains, so you would expect the epidemic to come down.

“And the sooner we get that down the more we can get into phases where we can test and trace and make sure we keep on top of this.

“There’s the start of clinical trials – first patient enrolled today. There’s the start of vaccine trials in mid-April expected. These are things which all together start to tell us that we’ve moved from a phase of ‘It’s growing and we need to take these measures to stop it growing’, to one where we’re saying ‘Put a lid on it and begin to start looking at what we do beyond that in order to get into the right position’. I think that’s where we can get to and that’s the timescale we need to push to make sure that we get there.”

Pressed on how he would define “turning the tide” against the virus, the prime minister – who admitted he had been accused of being “unnecessarily boosterish” – replied: “I believe that a combination of the measures that we’re asking the public to take and better testing, scientific progress, will enable us to get on top of it within the next 12 weeks and turn the tide.

“Now, I cannot stand here and tell you by the end of June we will be on the downward slope, it’s possible, but I simply can’t say that’s for certain.

“Of course not. We don’t know where we are, we don’t know how long this thing will go on for, but what I can say is this going to be finite, we will turn the tide and I can see how to do it in the next 12 weeks.”

Despite widespread speculation that Downing Street is preparing to impose stricter regulations on social distancing in London, Mr Johnson did not outline any further measures. Current government advice is to avoid all pubs, restaurants, theatres and other social venues.

He rejected suggestions of an imminent move to lock down London’s public transport or impose a ban on movements outside the home, telling the press conference: “There is no prospect of us wanting to stop public transport in London. We are not going to be telling people that under no circumstances, if they need to go to work, can they go to work.”

Sir Patrick issued a warning to young people not to ignore the advice on social distancing, as they could help inadvertently spread the disease as well as being under some risk themselves.

“The mixing in pubs and restaurants needs to stop and it needs to stop among young people as well as older,” he said.

In a briefing for health journalists earlier on Thursday, the government’s chief advisers explained how hundreds of scientists were feeding into the advice to ministers but that there were no clear answers because the virus was new and decisions were changing as the evidence emerged.

Prof Whitty said: “The key thing to understand about scientific advice in an emergency is you’re dealing with uncertainty, you’re dealing with areas where there is no settled science.

“There are quite a lot of really critical questions which we do not know the answer to now, we will know the answer to in six months or a year’s time.”

The scientists have warned a vaccine to combat coronavirus is at least 18 months away.