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Your support makes all the difference.This week is set to be a crunch week for Brexit talks: if the UK can’t get another extension, it crashes out on Friday without a deal (unless it decides to revoke Article 50). EU leaders will decide whether to grant an extension – and how long it might be – at a meeting on Wednesday in Brussels.
Here’s how things will go:
Monday
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has flown to Dublin for urgent talks with the Irish PM Leo Varadkar. They’ll give a press conference in the afternoon when they’re done.
Ireland – which has the most to lose from a no-deal – is the most positive of the 27 member states about granting Britain an extension, and the Taoiseach met with other EU leaders like Macron and Merkel last week to try and persuade them they shouldn’t risk it.
Will Ireland be told to hold the line, or will the Commission end up shifting to help its member state? It could be a compromise, and we may not really know the outcome until later in the week.
Meanwhile in Westminster, a cross-party bill aimed preventing a no-deal Brexit is expected to get Royal assent tonight. The Cooper-Letwin bill gives MPs the power to tell the prime minister to request a longer extension of Article 50 – she currently only wants a short one. This could be crucial in talks, because some EU states want the UK to accept a long extension rather than the short one the prime minister has asked for.
Tuesday
EU affairs ministers from the 27 EU countries will meet in Brussels early on Tuesday morning to prepare for Wednesday’s summit. These so-called “general affairs council” meetings are about preparing the ground for the leaders the next day.
Once the ministers have made their positions known, there’ll be a press conference, and depending on progress, we might have a pretty good idea of what the consensus on the continent is about an extension – or whether there is one yet.
Some hours after this, Theresa May is due to pay last-ditch visits to Emmanuel Macron in Paris and Angela Merkel in Berlin to try and persuade them of her point of request for a short extension.
Don’t expect much from these visits: as we know, ministers will already have been meeting earlier in the morning and laying out their positions. There could always be a surprise, but historically, the prime minister’s visits to EU capitals haven’t yielded any.
There's been some speculation that prime minister could use Tuesday to call for further indicative votes in parliament on the way forward, if there's no progress in talks with Labour – though it doesn't look likely at the moment.
Wednesday
EU leaders will gather in Brussels at 6pm on Wednesday – an unusually late summit. The only thing on the agenda is whether to grant the UK a Brexit extension.
We don’t know the exact format of the discussion yet, but if past precedent if anything to go by the prime minister will probably be given a chance to address the 27 leaders, who will then go off by themselves and figure it out without her present.
Given the late start and the contentiousness of the issue, we could be in a for a long night. The last couple of Brexit discussions have run very late. Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker are expected to give a press conference when the debate is finished announcing the result.
Thursday
Whatever happens in Brussels, you can expect fall-out in Westminster on Thursday. Will there be resignations from the Cabinet? Or will things settle down?
Friday
Friday 12 April is currently Brexit day. Will it be Brexit day by the time it rolls around? If an extension is granted, we’ll have a new one.
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