Is France going to become a bigger economy than the UK after Brexit?

Brexit was sold to the British people as the UK’s chance to break free from the economic restraint of the European Union and become the buccaneering export economy it was always meant to be.

The UK has the sixth biggest GDP in the world, but if those forecasting severe damage are right then the country should drop behind a French economy buoyed by Brussels.

With scrutiny of Theresa May’s deal intensifying and campaigning for and against Brexit in full swing again, what does the latest data show us?

According to the International Monetary Fund the UK is the fifth biggest economy, worth $2.94 trillion (£2.33 trillion), with France just behind at $2.93 trillion.

Talk to many in the business community and the mood about the outlook from here on in is gloomy, with confidence plummeting in the last year as uncertainty about Brexit continues, according to a survey released on Wednesday by the Institute of Directors.

It found overall optimism, which briefly reached positive territory following the initial agreement of a Brexit transition period, fell steadily since April and hit its lowest point in December.

But the research, involving more than 700 company directors, suggests reason for hope.

While the response for confidence in the economy overall was a net minus 38 per cent, the lowest for 18 months, bosses remain confident in the future of their own organisations with a net 30 per cent positive rating.

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors, said: “There can be no doubt that the tumultuous Brexit process is having a damaging impact on firms’ outlooks. The prospect of a no-deal in the near future will be weighing heavily on directors’ minds.

“Uncertainty is already causing businesses to delay investment, hiring decisions and product launches, which also acts to weaken our international competitiveness further down the line.

“The longer this state of affairs continues, the more we lose by it, even if these effects aren’t apparent in the here and now.”

Another think tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), specifically suggested France will indeed overtake the UK to become the world’s sixth biggest economy next year.

The finding appears to mirror the fear and concern highlighted in the IOD research among the business community, about operational systems that firms will be forced to change after Brexit.

The CEBR said “disruption” to the British economy was inevitable due to lower inward and business investment, as firms hold fire from spending money until things have stabilised.

But again there is hope, as the CEBR’s world economic league table report says Britain will return to the sixth spot by 2020.

The think tank goes on to say it believes the UK will retain its sixth position ahead of France through to 2033 at least.

The data suggests that the underlying confidence in the economy could return if the shock of Brexit passes.

Whether it is worth the risk of giving the economy an inevitable shock, and then betting on the return of confidence, will undoubtedly end up being a political rather than an economic question.