Tories’ ‘misleading’ £800bn post-Brexit trade deals claim condemned by watchdog

The Conservatives have been condemned by the UK’s official statistics watchdog for claiming that £800bn in “new” free trade deals had been secured since Brexit.

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) said it was “misleading” for the Tories to have said that the £800bn figure referred to new global trade, since it includes roll-over agreements which continued pre-Brexit trade arrangements.

Drew Hendry, the SNP’s trade spokesperson, wrote UKSA to complain about the Tory graphic, which stated: “We’ve secured new free trade deals with over 70 countries since 2016. That’s over £800bn worth of new free trade.”

In a reply letter, UKSA chair Sir Robert Chote said he assumed the £800bn figure referred to £559bn in net trade with EU countries last year and around £245bn in post-2016 deals with around 70 non-EU countries.

But Sir Robert pointed out that the infographic – shared by Michael Gove on Twitter – “is misleading to describe the £800bn figure as a measure of ‘new global trade’ resulting from the recent deals”.

He added: “That would imply that there had been no trade with these countries before the recent deals and that there would be none now without them.”

The UKSA chief – who also complained that there was no source for the figure “so the public can verify they numbers” – said the watchdog had contacted the Tory party about the matter.

“We have spoken to the Conservative party and asked that any future communications include a link or reference to the source of statistics,” said Sir Robert.

He added: “We have also requested that the party be more transparent about the context and assumptions that have been made to construct such statements and infographics.”

Mr Hendry said the infographic shared by Mr Gove showed that the Tories had been “spreading misleading and completely inaccurate statistics on social media”.

A Tory party spokesperson said: “Since Brexit the UK has signed deals with 71 countries plus the EU, accounting for over £800bn worth of trade last year.”

The row comes as the international trade secretary Kemi Badenoch arrives in India on Monday for the latest round of talks as the UK seeks to revive hopes of a free trade deal.

The government is still in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with India after a target of securing a deal by Diwali in October slipped.

The negotiations, which are expected to focus on a deal to cut tariffs and open opportunities for UK financial and legal services, are the first formal round of talks since July.

Ms Badenoch signalled that the potentially difficult issue of student visas would not form part of her negotiations in an interview with The Telegraph.

In October, home secretary Suella Braverman was accused of damaging trade talks after she said that the largest group of people who overstay visa requirements in the UK are Indian migrants.

Ms Badenoch said: “Student visas are a separate Home Office responsibility. Often FTAs get dragged into things that aren’t to do with trade ... Making sure we don’t let business talks turn into Home Office talks is very key for me.”

The few post-Brexit free trade agreements which are not rollover deals have come under scrutiny after ex-environment secretary George Eustice claimed that the Australian agreement “was not actually a very good deal” as the UK “gave away far too much”.

Mr Eustice also criticised the approach adopted by then-trade secretary Liz Truss in pursuing the deals, prompting Rishi Sunak to promise not to “sacrifice quality for speed when it comes to trade deals”.

Joe Biden has previously expressed unease over the UK’s ongoing row with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol, and the prospect of a trade deal with the US did not come up in one-on-one talks with Mr Sunak at last month’s G20 summit in Bali.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey told the New Statesman that voters “don’t talk about Brexit” on the doorstep and claimed the public was “not blaming Brexit” for the state of the economy.