Brexiteers’ opposition to May’s deal seems to be softening, so will she win parliament round?

After Theresa May’s Brexit deal was resoundingly defeated in the Commons in January, the chairman of the Brexiteer group of Conservative MPs, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and his allies demanded the prime minister reopen the agreement with Brussels she had spent nearly two years negotiating.

Dutifully, Ms May agreed to the rebels’ demands, while admitting that reopening the withdrawal agreement was “a move for which I know there is limited appetite among our European partners”.

The prime minister was not wrong: nearly two months later and the withdrawal agreement remains unaltered, and the EU 27 has been resolute in rejecting calls to reconsider its terms.

Now, some Brexiteers such as Mr Rees-Mogg appear to be signalling a more flexible stance over legal guarantees on the Northern Irish backstop – the EU’s insurance policy in the Brexit agreement to prevent a hard border.

Mr Rees-Mogg indicated this week he could back the prime minister’s exit deal if binding legal assurances were added as an appendix to the actual withdrawal agreement – rather than reopening the treaty itself, as the Brexiteers previously demanded.

“I can live with the de facto removal of the backstop,” Mr Rees-Mogg told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “I mean, if there is a clear date that says the backstop ends, and that is in the text of the treaty or equivalent of the text of the treaty, if it were to be an appendix to the treaty.”

With Brexit due to happen at the end of this month, Brexiteers’ temptation to vote for Ms May’s deal may have been boosted by her statement in the Commons this week. The prime minister told MPs that if the next “meaningful vote” on the withdrawal agreement is defeated, then they will have the chance to vote for an extension of Article 50, thus delaying Brexit.

Some Brexiteers – fearing a lengthy delay to the exit process – may decide to climb down, even though their fundamental objection to the backstop remains.

Still, plenty of pro-Brexit MPs still argue the backstop must be time-limited, or replaced in its entirety. On balance, it seems likely that most will vote down the deal again, unless Ms May obtains significant concessions in the next fortnight.

With no breakthrough in sight as Ms May’s officials continue discussions with their counterparts in Brussels, it remains an extraordinary (and probably unlikely) task for the prime minister to overturn the biggest defeat in the modern British political history and secure MPs’ backing for her Brexit deal.

Got an unanswered question about Brexit? Send it to editor@independent.co.uk and we’ll do our best to supply an answer in our Brexit Explained series