Could Nigel Farage's new party really disrupt the EU's working?

Nigel Farage has said that his new Brexit Party could potentially disrupt the EU’s inner workings if it wins the European Union elections.

During a debate on the Brexit extension earlier this year he goaded EU leaders, asking them whether they really wanted him sitting in the European parliament and ruining everything.

With the Brexit Party riding fairly high in the polls and a contender to come top in the UK, Farage looks certain to return to Strasbourg in the summer with a decent crop of MEPs.

But how much truth is there to this idea that he could be disruptive?

On the face of it, this is probably mostly bluster. MEPs do have some power, but there is one major thing to remember: Farage already won lots of MEPs in 2014, when Ukip won the European parliament elections in the UK.

This certainly gave Farage a platform to campaign – successfully – for Brexit. But he’s had little power to actually block anything in the EU, outnumbered by parties that disagree with him. The worst he can do is vote against things, which his MEPs have already been doing (when they turn up).

There is one potential avenue where the Brexit Party might cause problems, however. Polls across the continent show that Eurosceptic, populist, and far-right parties are expected to do well – with many making gains on 2014. The latest official projection says if they teamed up, they could be the biggest group.

If this happened, then the Brexit Party could be part of a bigger problem for the EU – as part of a larger bloc of parties from across the continent that wanted to frustrate its workings and stir up trouble.

Those parties will probably do well, but so far they have struggled to work together – many hate each other, and would be unlikely to join the same group. In that respect, their presence might be more symbolic than disruptive. But voting together they could make it harder to pass some legislation where the EU mainstream is divided.

EU officials are confident they can avoid disruption from the UK’s MEPs: a much bigger threat would be if a hard Brexiteer took control of the UK government and wanted to cause chaos – member states have far more power than individual MEPs.

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