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Nigel Farage's Brexit Party takes general election poll lead for very first time

New survey finds pro-Leave insurgents four points ahead of Labour

Adam Forrest
Sunday 02 June 2019 04:36 EDT
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Nigel Farage says the Brexit Party could 'stun everybody' in a general election

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The Brexit Party has topped a general election voting intention poll for the very first time, according to a new survey.

Nigel Farage’s insurgent outfit was found to be the most popular party on 26 per cent, ahead of Labour on 22 per cent, in the poll asking voters how they will cast their ballots at the next Westminster election.

The Conservatives are third on just 17 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent, according to the poll carried out by Opinium for The Observer.

The results suggest pro-Leave voters are not ready to abandon Mr Farage’s party at a general election after granting him victory at last week’s European parliamentary elections.

The Brexit Party has increased its backing by two points since the last Opinium survey two weeks ago, while Labour and the Conservatives have seen support fall by seven and five points respectively.

The latest polling does show a significant boost in support for the pro-Remain parties, however. The Greens are up eight points and the Lib Dems up five since the since the company’s last survey.

There was bad news for Change UK, however, with support for the independent MPs’ group down two points to just 1 per cent.

The results would, hypothetically, give the Brexit Party 306 seats in the House of Commons, according to the Electoral Calculus website. Labour would be on 205 and the Tories would be left with just 26 seats.

Launched only six weeks ago, Mr Farage’s party has rapidly absorbed the support of millions of voters angry over Britain’s failure to leave the EU. After winning 32 per cent of the vote and gaining 29 MEPs at the European elections, the former Ukip leader insisted his new organisation had the capacity to “stun everybody in a general election too”.

On Saturday Mr Farage has said winning the upcoming Peterborough by-election would be “even bigger” than the European results. His party is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the seat on 6 June.

The new poll comes as Donald Trump make his second dramatic intervention in British politics in as many days, calling on the UK to leave the EU without a deal if Brussels refuses to meet its demands, and urging the government to send Mr Farage into the negotiations.

He told the Sunday Times it was a “mistake” not to the involve Brexit Party leader Mr Farage in talks, saying he has a “lot to offer” and is someone he likes “a lot”.

Despite current excitement and fear about the Brexit Party, several leading experts have predicted success at a general election would be a much tougher task for Mr Farage’s group.

“When you’re fighting a general election with 650 constituencies, you need an organisation with grassroots organisational zeal,” Liverpool University’s professor of politics Andrew Russell told The Independent.

“The Brexit Party just don’t have that. It is always going to be difficult for them to win from a standing start. It’s very difficult to see them getting more than one or two seats.”

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