How can the DUP support Brexit when Northern Ireland does not?

The DUP has always been a Eurosceptic party, campaigning against common market membership in the 1970s. The party’s founder Ian Paisley felt the European Union was part of a conspiracy to create a Catholic superstate controlled by the Vatican, once even claiming that seat number 666 at the European parliament was reserved for the Antichrist.

The party went on to enjoy the best of both worlds, remaining deeply critical of the EU while taking seats in its parliament – and welcoming the money it directs to Northern Ireland. EU support for Northern Ireland, particularly after the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, plays a key role in peacekeeping and economic prosperity.

But the DUP has a very conservative, imperialist vision for Britain, free from the reins of Europe, and dominant on the world stage as a solo entity. This is the common ground it shares with the Conservative European Research Group, and even Ukip. So, when the referendum on EU membership came up in 2016, the party’s leaders attempted to have their cake and eat it: they would get behind this nationalist campaign for Brexit, safe in the knowledge that it would probably never happen. Except it did.

Worse news for the DUP was that Northern Ireland voted against Brexit, by 56 per cent to 44. Clearly going against the wishes of its electorate, the DUP instead emphasised that this was a nationwide vote and it was the overall vote that should be respected. Then the 2017 general election threw the party a lifeline: suddenly it was the kingmaker upon whom Theresa May relied. Its leaders boasted that they could now play a key role in defining the course of Brexit.

But by December that year, it became clear that the DUP’s decisive role in Brexit would not be one Theresa May (and the majority of her party) would find helpful. Despite welcoming the prime minister’s commitment to no border on the island of Ireland, the DUP – led by Arlene Foster – was not pleased with the method through which this was guaranteed: the backstop.

The backstop ensures that, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, regulatory alignment with the bloc will continue across the island of Ireland. This avoids the border no one wants, but it also effectively leaves Northern Ireland under some EU rules, with checks on goods in the Irish Sea rather than between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

To the DUP, this goes right to the heart of the constitutional question underpinning its entire existence. The party’s raison d’etre is Northern Ireland’s continuing union with Britain, so seeing Northern Ireland treated differently is something it simply could not countenance. Some members even see this as a ploy by the EU and the Republic of Ireland to bring about a united Ireland by stealth.

Fifteen months on from the birth of the backstop, much has happened in the Brexit saga. As a no-deal exit becomes a worrying reality to people on the ground in Northern Ireland, they have become increasingly at odds with the rationale of the DUP. A poll by The Irish Times this month found that 67 per cent of people there want to remain in the single market and the customs union to avoid any checks, while 59 per cent support remaining in the EU altogether. But for the DUP nothing has changed.

The party is standing firmly by its most loyal grassroots, who would happily see a no deal, and probably wouldn’t baulk at a return of the border either.

Last week, as hardline Conservatives switched to supporting the deal, the DUP realised that these perceived allies care more about Brexit than they do about the union. The party now sees itself as the sole protector of the union – something which, despite the pressure it is under, will only strengthen its resolve. The DUP would now rather have a long delay – or perhaps even no Brexit at all – than accept a deal that diminishes the strength of the union.

Anyone expecting the DUP to be swayed at the last minute might want to review its firm opposition to the Sunningdale Agreement in 1973, the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985, the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, and indeed its obstinacy in the face of political compromise which has left Northern Ireland without a functioning government for the last two years. When it comes to this Brexit deal, the DUP will stay true to one of the most memorable refrains of Ulster unionism: “No surrender.”

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