Brexit: Significant gaps remain in trade talks as time runs out for agreement with EU

"Quite a lot” remains to be done if a trade deal to be sealed with the EU, Boris Johnson’s chief Brexit negotiator has said, with just days to go before the effective deadline for agreement.

David Frost’s comment came amid growing alarm at the prospect of an economically damaging no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020, with the Scottish National Party warning that Boris Johnson was taking the UK “on the path to catastrophe”.

And Ireland’s foreign minister Simon Coveney warned that talks could collapse if there is no movement from the UK on fisheries, where he said London was asking for major concessions from Brussels in return for access to its waters for EU ships.

Downing Street signalled that the prime minister believes it is for Brussels to make concessions to break the deadlock, stating that “there will be no change” in the UK’s position and the EU must show “realism” if a deal is to be reached.

But EU financial services commissioner Mairead McGuinness said responsibility for failure to reach a deal would rest on Mr Johnson’s shoulders.

“The United Kingdom needs to sit down in good faith … and make an agreement,” Ms McGuinness told Times Radio. "Ultimately, this is down to Boris Johnson. He will ultimately be the one who takes the decision as to go with a deal or take the responsibility of not agreeing." 

The UK and the EU have both stated that a deal would need to be signed and sealed by the middle of November to give time for ratification before the new year, when Britain leaves the single market and customs union.

Diplomats are speculating that the real deadline is a virtual EU leaders’ summit scheduled for Thursday this week, when the bloc’s 27 presidents and prime ministers could pull the plug on talks if they are going nowhere.

Arriving in Brussels for the crucial round of talks, Lord Frost told Sky News: “We are working very hard to get a deal, but there’s quite a lot to do.”

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said his team remains “determined, patient, respectful”, adding: “We want our future cooperation to be open but fair in all areas.”

In a tweet ahead of the talks, Lord Frost said: “We are working to get a deal, but the only one that’s possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, our trade and our waters. That has been our consistent position from the start and I will not be changing it.”

He said negotiators “now largely have common draft treaty texts” but said “significant elements are of course not yet agreed”.

Lord Frost added: “We may not succeed. Either way, as the prime minister made clear on 16 October, people and businesses must prepare for the change that is coming on 31 December, most of which happens whether there is a deal or not."

Mr Johnson’s spokesman dismissed suggestions that the negotiator’s use of the phrase “I will not be changing it” indicated Lord Frost was concerned the PM might shift his position.

“There will be no change to our approach,” said the spokesman. “The government’s negotiating strategy has been consistent and fixed throughout and as Lord Frost said yesterday, he will not be changing it.”
The spokesman added: “Significant differences do remain and key elements of the draft texts are not yet agreed. What we are working to do is seek solutions that fully respect UK sovereignty.

“Negotiators have been in contact almost every day since 22 October and are continuing working intensively to bridge the gaps that remain.

“Although there has been progress in recent days, there is much work to be done and time is now very short.

“If we are to make progress in the coming days, we need to see more realism from the EU on what it means for the UK to be an independent state.”

The spokesman said Mr Johnson continues to believe that the UK would thrive with a no-deal Brexit – which he referred to as an Australian-style arrangement, as Australia has no trade deal with the EU.

Speaking to RTE, Mr Coveney said the negotiations were “not in a good place when it comes to fishing”.

“What the British government have promised to their fishing industry, vs what Michel Barnier’s negotiating mandate from the EU is, there’s a very, very wide gap,” said Mr Coveney.

“There hasn’t been any success in closing the gap between the positions of either side. Until we can find a way of doing that, there isn’t going to be an agreement. We’re in the same place in fishing as we were in mid-summer.”

Mr Coveney said that in return for access to its waters for the EU fishing fleet, the UK was demanding access into the far more economically valuable EU energy market, as well as facilitation from Brussels on aviation, road haulage, judicial cooperation, defence cooperation, data, service industries and financial services.”

Ms McGuinness said any deal must be based on the UK remaining in line with EU financial services standards as they develop over time.

“If we do a trade agreement with any player, but particularly the UK ... we have to use our standards as the very basis,” she said. "But we also need to be able to make sure that over time, whatever divergence the UK might take … they remain close to the standards at EU level.

“That is not clear at all at the moment. I have listened and I've read all of the messages coming from the United Kingdom about being sovereign and independent and taking back control. But that doesn't fit with trying to do a trade agreement with a major bloc.” 

SNP Brexit spokeswoman Philippa Whitford said the UK government had already "left it far too late" to avoid significant damage and disruption to the economy, by going to the wire with the options of a minimal deal or none at all.

"Boris Johnson is utterly deluded if he thinks we will prosper under reckless Tory plans for an extreme Brexit, when we know Scotland and the UK are already billions of pounds worse off,” said Dr Whitford.

"The prime minister is taking the UK on the path to catastrophe. People won't fall for the theatrics – when the only possible outcome at this late stage is a very bad low-deal Brexit or an even worse no deal. Either outcome will leave the whole of the UK poorer for decades to come.”