Why is Theresa May seeking a short Brexit delay that the EU is likely to reject?

Theresa May surprised many people this week, including some of her own MPs, by asking the European Union to delay Brexit only until 30 June.

It had been expected that the prime minister would seek a longer delay to give parliament time to find a solution to the crisis.

Instead, she wrote to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, on Friday requesting only two-and-a-half months more than the 12 April deadline to break the deadlock in parliament after MPs rejected her proposed withdrawal agreement three times.

She said: “The United Kingdom proposes that this period should end on 30 June 2019. If the parties are able to ratify before this date, the government proposes that the period should be terminated early.

“The government will want to agree a timetable for ratification that allows the United Kingdom to withdraw from the European Union before 23 May 2019 and therefore cancel the European parliament elections, but will continue to make responsible preparations to hold the elections.”

A delay until 30 June would most likely force the UK to take part in European parliament elections on 23 May but, crucially, it would see Britain leave the EU before the new parliament sits in early July. Ms May has said repeatedly she believes the UK electing new MEPs would not be acceptable.

The request is highly unlikely to be approved by the EU. Mr Tusk is instead drawing up his own plan which would involve a one-year extension with the option of the UK leaving earlier if parliament ratifies a withdrawal agreement.

EU countries do not want a situation where they are having to discuss a further short delay to Brexit every few weeks. Brussels is also unconvinced that a short delay will allow Theresa May enough time to find a way to break the current deadlock in parliament.

So why has the prime minister requested a delay that is unlikely to be granted?

The short answer is party management. The prime minister had come under heavy pressure from Tory Eurosceptics, including those within her cabinet, not to request a long delay to Brexit.

Senior ministers including Gavin Williamson, Liz Truss, Chris Grayling, Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove held two meetings on Thursday to discuss how to persuade her to seek only a short extension.

Facing the prospect of ministerial resignations and fury in her parliamentary party, Ms May staved off a major rebellion by asking for only a two-and-a-half month delay – most likely knowing the EU would insist on a longer one.

This allows her to argue to her party that she did not want a long delay to Brexit and had one forced upon her by the EU, if Brussels insists on a later exit date.

It is also possible that parliament will take the matter out of her hands. Under the terms of a bill put forward by Labour MP Yvette Cooper, the government will have to seek parliament’s approval of the length of the extension it requests.

With the bill expected to be passed by parliament early next week, MPs could ultimately vote to force Ms May to seek a longer extension.

Either way, Ms May will attempt to quell anger from Tory Brexiteers by insisting she shares their view that Brexit must be delivered sooner rather than later. Whether her latest move will be enough to do so is a very different matter.

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