What does a week of Westminster turmoil mean for the Brexit debate?

When Sky News’s helicopter circles above Westminster, it is usually a reliable sign of political turmoil. The same can be said for an unusually high number of gazebos on College Green – the patch of grass outside the House of Lords from which journalists broadcast to the nation.

This week an aerial view of the Palace of Westminster was beamed into living rooms across the country as another dramatic week in British politics unfolded.

At 10am on Monday, seven MPs quit Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party with a withering assessment of his leadership – the biggest schism in the party since the formation of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 1980s.

The following evening, an eighth MP left Labour’s ranks and on Wednesday – an hour before prime minister’s questions – Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen left the Conservative Party to join the opposition benches.

Together, the 11 MPs have formed the Independent Group in the House of Commons and, though they have not yet formed a political party, the group has more MPs than the Democratic Unionist Party and the same number as the Liberal Democrats.

It means Theresa May‘s effective majority in the chamber has been reduced to eight, making her reliance on the DUP to prop up the government ever more important.

While this week has undoubtedly increased the instability at Westminster, the parliamentary arithmetic for Brexit hasn’t shifted a great deal.

The prime minister still faces the mammoth task of getting her deal through the Commons and, regardless of which side of the Commons the three ex-Tory MPs are sitting on, it is unlikely they will suddenly drop their opposition to Ms May’s deal.

Support for a fresh referendum still does not appear to command a majority in the chamber, and the likelihood of the prime minister declaring her support for a customs union (one of Labour’s red lines) remains slim at best.

But the current turmoil will inevitably have a considerable impact on the debate. The hardline Brexiteer Conservative MPs in the European Research Group – wary of the effect more defections from the party could have – may provide the prime minister with a temporary show of unity as she continues to negotiate with Brussels.

And with just 36 days until Brexit, wavering Labour MPs wanting to avoid a no-deal scenario may feel more inclined to back Ms May’s proposals. One thing is for sure, expect more aerial views of the Palace of Westminster in the next few weeks.

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