Brexit deal: What happens when MPs return from recess?

On 7 January, MPs will return from a two-week recess and the first major decision facing them in 2019 will be whether to back or reject Theresa May‘s Brexit deal – one of the most crucial votes in the Commons in recent years.

It appears unlikely the prime minister will accept Jeremy Corbyn‘s challenge – made in a recent interview with The Independent – to recall parliament early, so the vote remains set to go ahead in the week beginning 14 January.

It had of course been pencilled in for 11 December, but after three days of debate Ms May made the decision to postpone the vote in the face of a near-certain defeat and suggestions that around 100 Conservative MPs could vote against the deal.

She then told MPs she would go back to Brussels in an attempt to seek legal assurances over the contentious issue of the Irish backstop – the EU’s insurance policy aiming to prevent a hard border in Ireland should no trade deal be in place by the end of the transition period in December 2020.

The fresh debate will now kick off in the Commons on Wednesday 9 January and MPs will (again) be given several days to consider the deal before the vote taking place the following week.

But with the EU offering little hope of any major last-minute concessions at a recent conference in Brussels, it appears Ms May could have simply postponed defeat.

Some ministers believe the prime minister can still persuade her supply and confidence partners – the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – to back the deal.

The party was vehemently opposed to the UK-EU agreement earlier in December and, in the absence of any substantial offering from the EU, it seems unlikely its MPs will come to Ms May’s rescue.

What happens in the immediate aftermath of the deal failing to pass in the Commons is uncertain, and on Sunday the cabinet minister Liam Fox even suggested the chance of Brexit happening will be down to little more than “50-50”.

A whole host of other scenarios are theoretically possible, including a no-deal Brexit, a fresh referendum, a general election, or even the prime minister deciding it’s time for a new leader of the Conservative Party to get a deal over the line. It is certainly shaping up to be a historic start to the new year for MPs returning to the chamber.

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