Brexit deal slipping to December amid deadlocked talks

A Brexit deal now looks unlikely until just before Christmas after Theresa May admitted “weeks” may be needed to break the deadlock in talks with Brussels.

The delay was also signalled by Ireland’s prime minister who warned of log-jammed negotiations dragging into December, increasing concern that stalled talks could simply collapse into a “disaster” no-deal situation.

In a veiled swipe at Brexiteers, European Council President Donald Tusk said solving the vexed issue of the Irish border had proved “more complicated than some may have expected” and said no deal is now “more likely than ever”.

A further sign of slippage came when the EU confirmed it would take a decision this week on whether a special summit once proposed for November to publicly seal a Brexit deal, will be needed given the state of talks.

But despite the deadlock, Ms May again came under intense pressure from Conservative Eurosceptics to refuse anything resembling the EU’s proposals, amid signs she is diluting her stance to secure a deal.

The October summit was once supposed to be the moment a withdrawal deal was locked in, with expectations already having slipped to a potential specially arranged meeting in November – even under those circumstances the outline would have had to have been agreed at this week’s meeting.

But after emergency talks last weekend failed to break the impasse ahead of the meeting in Brussels starting on Thursday, Ms May admitted to MPs that difficult problems remain.

In particular she said: “The EU says there is not time to work out the detail of [the UK’s proposed solution to the Irish border problem] in the next few weeks.”

At the heart of the problem is the gap between the two sides on what happens if, after the Brexit transition period ends in December 2020, no trade deal has been agreed setting out what new customs arrangements should be implemented.

Under these circumstances the EU’s position is that Northern Ireland at least should remain in the EU’s customs union until a trade deal is set in stone, in order to keep the border with the Republic open, but Ms May says she wants a solution where the whole UK remains in a “temporary customs arrangement” – essentially Britain staying in the EU’s customs union on a more strictly “time limited” basis.

The failure to come to a joint position left Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, admitting that he always believed a deal this month was unlikely.

He said: “The initial target if you like was October. That’s now slipped to November. I don’t want to create the wrong impression by suggesting that it’s now December, that’s not what I’m saying.

“The possibility remains open to having an emergency summit in November if we can get to a deal. But if we don’t have an emergency summit in November, well then it will be the regular summit in December.”

He argued that the consequences of a no-deal cliff-edge Brexit would be “really bad for Ireland, relatively bad for the EU, but quite a disaster for the UK.”

At the summit in Brussels starting on Wednesday night, EU leaders will confirm whether the special November meeting to seal a deal is necessary with the deadlock over the Irish border still blocking progress.

Theresa May will have the chance to address EU leaders ahead of a discussion on Brexit that the UK will be excluded from. But Mr Tusk’s letter to leaders marking the start of the summit sought to manage expectations.

It said: “As you remember from [the September meeting in] Salzburg, we wished for maximum progress and results that would lead to a deal in October.

“As things stand today, it has proven to be more complicated than some may have expected. We should nevertheless remain hopeful and determined, as there is good will to continue these talks on both sides.

“But at the same time, responsible as we are, we must prepare the EU for a no-deal scenario, which is more likely than ever before.”

There are indications that Ms May could try and seek a compromise that would see her alter the UK’s proposals for the so-called “backstop” option – a time-limited customs arrangement.

Instead of demanding a date that the arrangement would end, something which the EU has rejected, she would find other ways of making the arrangement temporary – by saying for example that it would expire under certain conditions.

The prime minister was asked by a string of MPs in the commons whether she would seek an “end date” to her proposals but repeatedly refused to say, indicated she may compromise on the issue.

Simon Clarke, the Conservative MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, said: “So far today [the prime minister] has failed to reassure the house that we will definitely be able to leave the backstop by 31 December, 2020.”

Ms May replied: “I have been clear that one of the areas where we are continuing to discuss with the European Union ... is this issue of the temporary nature of the backstop and ensuring that we have the means to ensure that backstop is temporary were it ever to come in place.”

Earlier, Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, also urged the prime minister to put a deadline on the backstop, but Ms May refused to commit to a deadline, saying only that she “expects” December 2020 to be the end date.

Brexit will be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, though fears of a walkout of top ministers have apparently been averted with the failure to reach any kind of deal over which ministers might resign.