Boris Johnson trade deal plan little better than no-deal Brexit, UK’s former ambassador to EU warns

The limited EU trade agreement pursued by Boris Johnson could be little better for the economy than a no-deal Brexit, the UK’s former ambassador to Brussels has warned.

Sir Ivan Rogers, who served as the UK’s top official in the EU capital under both David Cameron and Theresa May, said he was not optimistic at the prospect of a deal by the end of the year.

He also suggested there were people in the government “misjudging” the right approach to negotiations.

“I think you could reach a quick and dirty, skinny, very thin, FTA. You might question how much economic value it has in comparison with no deal,” he told a think tank event in Whitehall.

On whether a deal could be reached, Sir Ivan told the audience at the UK in a Changing Europe event: “I don’t think it’s beyond the wit of bureaucrats on both sides .... but do I honestly sit here optimistic at the moment that all of this is going to happen? Of course not. I persist in saying regularly to financial market players here ... that the risk of no deal is very considerably underestimated.”

The former senior official, who quit his role 2017, said: “You’re up against a really sophisticated negotiating opponent, with huge experience in the field, and a deep and intimate knowledge of all our positions because they’ve been representing those positions for the last 40 years.

“The EU system, which is constantly disparaged in the UK, is a bloody good and formidable negotiator that knows what it is doing and it’s just spent the last three years demonstrating that.”

Since Boris Johnson came to power Downing Street has said it only wants a basic free trade agreement with the UK that would bring back border checks on goods.

The UK government says it wants a deal like the one the EU has signed with Canada, which removes most tariffs and quotas, but leaves the most politically contentious in place.

Britain has also signed a political declaration which states it wants to remove all tariffs and quotas on goods.

Such a deal would put the UK outside of the customs union and single market and render it the least economically connected to its neighbours of any western or central European country.

Economic forecasts have suggested a limited free trade agreement would be second only to no deal in the damage it causes to the UK economy.

On the government’s negotiating strategy, Sir Ivan said: “I suspect there are some people in No 10 who think if we go hard and demonstrate that unlike Theresa May we really are prepared to walk away ... this will concentrate the minds of some member states who will be frightened to death by the idea that we do end up with no deal.”

He added: “I think that’s the wrong judgement ... I don’t buy it but I think there are some who want a deal who are misjudging what the EU are prepared to give them.”

The first round of trade talks took place Brussels last week, with the second scheduled for next week week in London. But uncertainty swirls around whether the meetings, which involve more than 200 officials, will take place amid the coronavirus outbreak.

A UK government spokesperson said: “Talks remain scheduled to go ahead next week but clearly we will keep the situation under review and will be guided by scientific advice.”