'He'll break the party': Boris Johnson faces losing Commons majority over no-deal Brexit threat

Boris Johnson has been warned that his governing majority could vanish overnight as more Conservative MPs consider defecting to other parties or sitting as independents.

The Conservatives’ majority in the House of Commons was cut to just one after they lost the Brecon and Radnorshire seat to the Liberal Democrats in Thursday’s by-election.

Jo Swinson’s party overturned a majority of more than 8,000 to win the seat from Tory MP Chris Davies by a margin of 1,425. Mr Davies faced the by-election after a successful recall petition following his conviction for filing false expenses.

The result means that Mr Johnson would be forced to lead a minority government if just one more Tory MP decided to defect to another party.

Several are thought to be considering leaving the Conservatives amid disillusionment and anger among pro-EU Tories at Mr Johnson’s Brexit stance.

The chances of further defections have increased as ministers in the new government ramp up their threats to take Britain out of the EU without a deal.

Phillip Lee and Guto Bebb, both supporters of a second Brexit referendum, are seen as among the most likely Tory MPs to leave the party. Dr Lee recently lost a vote of no confidence among Tory members in his Bracknell constituency, while Mr Bebb has said he will stand down at the next election.

Former cabinet ministers Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening have also suggested that they could leave the party if the government opts for no deal, as did Margot James, who resigned as a business minister last month in order to vote against the government on Brexit.

A number of other pro-EU Tories are also increasingly unhappy about the direction of the party.

One former minister told The Independent that Mr Johnson would destroy the Conservatives if he attempted to force through a no-deal Brexit.

They warned: ”He’ll break the party if he tries [to force through no deal] or succeeds. MPs will leave, I think activists will leave – we have seen that already – and voters will leave.

“This notion that delivering a no-deal Brexit somehow seals an election victory is for the birds. It’s bonkers. Rather it seals the party’s death warrant, and rightly so.

“Any party that ignored an elected parliament on no deal, and the clear evidence of a majority of people not wanting no deal, especially young people, doesn’t deserve to survive. It would become defunct: scrapping with the Brexit Party for the over-70s vote.”

In a further stark warning to Mr Johnson, Dr Lee, a former justice minister, said there were “a number” of Conservative MPs considering their future in the party.

He told The Guardian: “I have things to think about over the summer, but it is not just me.

“There are a number of colleagues who are spending the summer reflecting on what is the right way for them to confront this no-deal scenario. Of course, it is difficult for all of us because we joined the Conservative party, but it has morphed into something a lot different to what I joined in 1992.”

Tory MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit are already working with other parties in a bid to stop Mr Johnson forcing through no deal if he cannot secure a new agreement with the EU.

The government’s wafer-thin majority means the prime minister would likely have to rely on the votes of Eurosceptic Labour MPs in order to win the Commons’ backing for such an outcome.

Mr Lee said: “At the moment Boris Johnson has a very difficult pitch to play and that has been made even harder by the formation of this cabinet. There are increasingly people who think, ‘Even if my career is over, I can’t put my name to this.’

“I am doing my best to represent my constituents – I cannot think of a business in my patch that is enthusiastic about Brexit let alone no deal. It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.”

The defeat in Brecon and Radnorshire prompted concern among some Tory MPs, especially given the Brexit Party’s third-place finish ultimately cost the Conservatives the seat.

After the result, Steve Baker, a prominent figure in the European Research Group (ERG) of Eurosceptic Tory MPs, said it would be a “massive own goal” for Nigel Farage’s party to continue standing against the Conservatives.

He wrote on Twitter: “It is becoming obvious to all now that the Brexit Party standing against the Conservative Party would produce a massive own goal.”

A Brexit Party spokesperson dismissed the comment as “ridiculous”.

They said: “While we have a government led by somebody nobody has ever trusted in his entire career, why should we trust the Tories? Why should anyone in the country trust the Tories?”