Pollsters challenge Boris Johnson’s claim Tories are worse off under Sunak

Boris Johnson was chastised by top political experts after the former Tory leader made a dig at Rishi Sunak and the party’s dire polling numbers.

Leading pollsters pointed the finger at the former prime minister for sparking the collapse in Tory fortunes with Partygate – the scandal which eventually saw him thrown out of No 10.

Mr Johnson claimed the Tories were facing “considerable” defeat, arguing that they were now in a worse position than when he was in charge.

The ex-Conservative leader made the claim in a new interview as Mr Sunak’s popularity fell to its lowest point since he took over last year.

“It would be remiss of me not to make the observation that they are now facing a considerable defeat in the polls, a much bigger differential than when I was leader, by about 20 points,” Mr Johnson told The Telegraph.

But Britain’s top pollster Prof John Curtice pointed out that the Conservatives popularity first plunged under Mr Johnson – calling him an ongoing “liability” for the party.

Prof Curtice told The Independent that Partygate and Liz Truss’s disastrous six-week premiership were the “two absolutely pivotal moments of this parliament”.

The polling guru said: “The Conservatives fell significantly behind when the first Partygate stories emerged, and further behind under Liz Truss. They both caused huge damage. And the damage of the two events is pretty similar.

“Boris Johnson is still a problem for the Conservatives. Sunak defending Boris’s handling of Partygate at the Covid inquiry – this is not where you want to be,” Prof Curtice added. “You want clear blue water between you and Boris Johnson, because he is still a liability.”

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Pollster Luke Tryl, UK director at the More in Common group, said Mr Johnson represented a “double-edged sword” for the Conservatives. “We definitely find there are a group of voters who liked Boris and can’t warm to Sunak,” he told The Independent.

But he added: “The problem is that that is absent the daily chaos we know would be happening and the Covid inquiry revelations which would alienate so many swing voters. So I think there’s an argument Boris may have led the Tories to a less bad defeat, but that’s about it.”

Mr Johnson insisted the gap between the Tories and Labour was not “insurmountable”, with “a long time” before the UK finally gets its say on who should be in power.

An election is expected next year, with the latest date for a contest in January 2025 some six years after Mr Johnson swept to a landslide victory over the divisive Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

When Mr Johnson was forced out last July, the Conservatives were trailing Labour by around 10 points in the polls. The gap dramatically widened under Liz Truss, reaching around 30 points at its peak, and has settled at around 20 points under Mr Sunak.

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Despite the broadside, Mr Johnson backed the PM for pushing on with the Rwanda deportation plan first announced under his premiership.

“It’s totally right and I’m so glad they didn’t drop the bill. I’m so glad they pushed on. It was absolutely right,” he said. “We’ve just got to keep going. And we’ve got a very difficult legal, very complicated legal situation but we have to push on.”

YouGov on Wednesday said Mr Sunak’s personal approval rating has slumped to the same level as Mr Johnson’s when he was forced from No 10. Just 21 per cent of people said they have a positive view of the PM.

That compared with 70 per cent of people who said they view him negatively, leaving his approval rating at -49, a 10-point drop from the end of November. It is also 30 points below Mr Sunak’s rating when he took over as PM.

It is the lowest approval rating YouGov has recorded for the PM since he took over from Ms Truss last October.

His failure to turn the party’s fortunes around has led to reports of regret among MPs in the red wall at Mr Johnson’s ousting – including from deputy Tory chairman Lee Anderson.

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It came as a leaked audio recording revealed Mr Anderson admitting to supporters that Mr Sunak does not have the “charisma” of Mr Johnson.

The outspoken MP for Ashfield in Nottinghamshire, was heard on tape saying Mr Sunak lacks the charisma of Mr Johnson at a “Lagers with Lee” event.

“Rishi is a details man, he gets the job done. He hasn’t got the charisma of Boris, we know that… there’s not many people who have,” he told an event at Cambridge Rugby Club, The Mirror reported.

Asked about Mr Anderson’s unflattering remarks about Mr Sunak, a No 10 spokesman said: “The public can very clearly see that [Mr Sunak] is working night and day on the priorities matter to them.”

Mr Sunak enjoyed a small poll bounce when he took over, having won praise for his handling of the economy through the pandemic.

The Tories had hoped that he would restore the party’s reputation after the Johnson and Truss administrations. But the dip in Mr Sunak’s popularity also means he is now as unpopular as the Conservative Party as a whole.