Boris Johnson is preparing a Christmas Covid plan – but what are the risks?

Standing at the podium in No 10 last month, a flustered Boris Johnson, forced into a premature announcement of England’s second national lockdown due to leaks of his plans, insisted he had “no doubt” people across the country would be able to have “as normal a Christmas as possible”.

Addressing the House of Commons on Monday, the prime minister will set out his proposals to allow the British public to see their loved ones over the festive period. Discussions are currently underway between the government and devolved administrations to agree a UK-wide approach.

Reports have suggested that ministers are looking to introduce a temporary amnesty on the most severe measures between 22 and 28 December with families able to form “bubbles” in order to get together. Restrictions on church services could also be lifted, allowing Christmas Day services to go ahead.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has previously stressed there will still be rules in place and people will be asked to observe social distancing measures, appearing to suggest hugging relatives and friends will be advised against.

This is likely what the prime minister had in mind when he said people will be able to have as normal a Christmas as possible.

But Mr Johnson is well aware of the dilemma the government faces, and the risks involved with loosening social restrictions – even just for several days. Allowing people to travel across the UK, visit relatives, and travel back again, will inevitably lead to a rise in Covid cases.

While the number of cases appears to be flattening, hundreds of people are still losing their lives daily after testing positive for the virus. And as was proved over the summer, when infections were at their lowest, the virus can easily make a resurgence.

Perhaps the most stark risk was highlighted by professor Gabriel Scally, a member of the Independent Sage group, who warned last week: “There is no point having a very merry Christmas then burying friends and relations in January and February.”

Last week Public Health England (PHE) also suggested that for every day of loosening restrictions over the Christmas period, five days of tighter measures would need to follow afterwards in order to get transmission rates back down again. This could potentially mean that an easing of measures for seven days, as reported, would lead to more than a month of strict measures in the new year.

How far the prime minister goes on Monday in his plans to enable the country to have as “normal a Christmas as possible” remains to be seen, but ministers have indicated this will not be a normal festive period.

In the meantime, even after England’s national lockdown ends on 2 December, it is likely the country will face tough measures with the government poised to return a strengthened version of the three-tiered system of measures in an attempt to prevent hospitals reaching breaking point.