Labour set to win across Tories’ southern heartlands thanks to Liz Truss, poll shows

Your support helps us to tell the story

Support Now

Find out moreClose

As your White House correspondent, I ask the tough questions and seek the answers that matter.

Your support enables me to be in the room, pressing for transparency and accountability. Without your contributions, we wouldn't have the resources to challenge those in power.

Your donation makes it possible for us to keep doing this important work, keeping you informed every step of the way to the November election

Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

Labour is set to capture vast swathes of the Tories’ southern heartlands following Liz Truss‘s disastrous first month as prime minister, a new poll shows.

Keir Starmer‘s party, which was 29 points behind the Tories in the so-called “blue wall” seats at the 2019 election, is now 21 points ahead.

The 42 constituencies polled are southern seats traditionally won by the Tories, where the Liberal Democrats came second last time.

But with Liz Truss’s popularity plumbing historic depths after a calamitous Budget, the Tories are now set to win just 28 per cent of the vote in their own heartlands, down 22 percentage points.

Labour is on course to win 41 per cent of the vote, up 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems are also close to drawing level with the Conservatives on 24 per cent.

The result would see the south turn red and yellow on the political map, in some places for the first time.

The prime minister's unpopularity seems to be a major drag on Tory fortunes, with her rating in the blue wall already at -35 per cent, according to the survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies.

52 per cent of those in the blue wall, including 49 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they disapprove of Ms Truss’s performance, with just 17 per cent approving.

Respondents in the seats were asked about the government’s policy performance in certain areas, and said they approved of how it handled the coronavirus pandemic and defence.

But in other areas such as the economy, the NHS, housing, and the environment, views were strongly negative.

Seats polled as part of the exercise include Jeremy Hunt’s South West Surrey constituency, Dominic Raab’s seat of Esher and Walton, and Boris Johnson’s area of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Others include Guildford, Wimbledon, Woking, Mole Valley, Bournemouth East and South Cambridgeshire – as well as Lewes, Colchester, and Watford.

Labour has jumped to a lead of more than 20 or even 30 points nationally following the prime minister's first Budget with chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

The so-called “fiscal event”, which included billions in unfunded tax cuts, sent financial markets haywire, nearly causing pension fund defaults and sending the cost of government and mortgage debt soaring.