Blair's other war

When she was a spin doctor for the Government, Jo Moore became notorious for her advice that 11 September would be a good day to bury bad news. With war now looming, every day has been a Jo Moore day ? not because ministers want to bury news necessarily, but because it has been buried by international events. Andy McSmith, Jo Dillon and Michael Williams report on the domestic problems piling up in ministers' in-trays, some of which could produce huge Commons rebellions, making them ? in effect ? Tony Blair's second front

Tax

What's the problem?

The forecasts on which Gordon Brown based earlier Budgets have proved to be too optimistic. In the financial year to date, he is £11.4bn in the red, when a year ago he had a £2.3bn surplus. Under his own rules, he can borrow to make up the difference, provided he pays back the borrowing during the course of the economic cycle. But the European Central Bank has said that this is not an ordinary downturn in an economic cycle, which will pick up over time, but the permanent bursting of the 1990s bubble. The Institute of Fiscal Studies has reckoned that he will have to raise another £11bn from April 2005 to meet his own golden rule. He will also soon have the Iraq war to pay for, soaking up any spare money there might be, and a Budget to present in April, in which he will not want to lose his reputation as a prudent chancellor. Meanwhile, in April, the 1p rise in national insurance – actually an income tax rise – will appear in people's pay packets.

Who's affected?

The national insurance increase alone will affect any family with children whose total income is more than £22,000, about 14 million families in all.

Who's angry?

So far, only the specialists have noticed what lies ahead. They include the shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, who has begun to attack the Government's economic record. When the effects are felt, millions could be angry.

Political damage potential: 5

The euro

What's the problem?

Time is running out for a decision on whether to hold a referendum on British membership of the euro. The Treasury's five economic tests must be completed and the decision announced by June.

Who's affected?

Everybody.

Who's angry?

If the referendum is put off, it will annoy those keen for Britain to join, including companies and trade unions who believe it will be good for trade. If it is on, the Government will face a coalition of most of the Conservative Party, part of the Labour left, wealthy businessmen, the Murdoch press, The Daily and Sunday Telegraph and – according to polls – most of the population.

Political damage potential: 4

Council tax

What's the problem?

At the very time national insurance rises kick in, local councils are going to impose tax increases averaging 12 per cent, rising to more than 40 per cent in some cases.

Who's affected?

Nearly every householder, with those in London harder hit than those in the North.

Who's angry?

Everybody, council leaders and ministers concerned.

Political damage potential: 3

Foundation hospitals

What's the problem?

NHS bureaucracy is too centralised, so the Secretary of State for Health, Alan Milburn, is expected to produce legislation this week that will allow the best-run hospitals to apply for "foundation" status, giving them more freedom to run their own financial affairs. The fear is that this will put patients in other hospitals at a disadvantage, and could result in more private patients being treated in the NHS.

Who's affected?

Thousands of patients and hundreds of employees in the first wave of foundation hospitals. In the long run, everyone who uses or works for the NHS could be affected.

Who's angry?

The main health unions and at least 116 MPs, including 108 Labour MPs who have declared their opposition, led by the former health secretary Frank Dobson.

Political damage potential: 4

Doctors' pay

What's the problem?

A pay deal agreed with the British Medical Association and the Secretary of State for Health was rejected by consultants at the end of last year. They objected to being asked to work at weekends and nights, and complained that government targets were distorting clinical priorities. No new talks are scheduled.

Who's affected?

Potentially millions of NHS patients, and around 25,000 NHS consultants.

Who's angry?

Trust managers, the British Medical Association, consultants (a recent survey said one in four was ready to quit the NHS over this), the Tories and Alan Milburn.

Political damage potential: 2

University fees

What's the problem?

British universities have been chronically short of money, so the Government will legislate later this year to allow some of them to charge "top-up fees". There are fears that bright children from low-income families will avoid applying to the best universities because they will cost more.

Who's affected?

Any family with children now aged 15 or less who will one day go to university, and those who work in universities.

Who's angry?

Most universities, except the élite ones that will charge higher fees, the students' union, the lecturers' union, 173 MPs – 140 of them Labour – who have publicly opposed the scheme and, privately, the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, the former education secretaries David Blunkett and Estelle Morris and others.

Political damage potential: 4

University admissions

What's the problem?

The Government says that children from state schools in economically depressed areas are at a disadvantage in the scramble for university places, and wants universities to take corrective measures. Now Bristol University is accused of "reverse discrimination" – rejecting pupils from independent schools in favour of state school children with less impressive exam results.

Who's affected?

A few hundred reasonably bright public school boys and girls and an equivalent number of arguably brighter children from state schools.

Who's angry?

The public schools and the Daily Mail.

Political damage potential: 3

Asylum-seekers

What's the problem?

Record numbers of people are seeking asylum in the UK – the total for last year having reached 110,000. The cost to the Exchequer was £1.7bn in the same period. And yet in other European countries the number of people seeking asylum is falling, prompting suggestions that Britain is a "soft touch" for asylum-seekers. Tony Blair has promised to halve the number of asylum-seekers by September – a target the usually media-friendly Home Secretary has had surprisingly little to say about.

Who's affected?

Just over 110,000 asylum applicants (and a similar number of Nimbys). But this is a problem – if the surgeries of MPs are anything to go by – that thousands of unaffected Britons believe affects them.

Who's angry?

Middle England is up in arms that its green and pleasant land is being "flooded" by asylum-seekers. But the Government's tough response to them, expressed in anti-asylum posturing, has angered many Labour backbenchers and human rights activists.

Political damage potential: 5

Crime figures

What's the problem?

Gun crime, according to the latest figures published at the start of 2003, was up 35 per cent – a poignant reminder of the real problem behind the tragic New Year's Eve shootings in Birmingham. Overall, crime in the year to September 2002 was up 9.3 per cent, with domestic burglary up 7.9 per cent, drugs offences up 12.3 per cent and sex offences up 18.2 per cent. Government protestations that they'd started a new counting system fell on deaf ears. All that despite record numbers of police officers and countless counter-crime initiatives.

Who's affected?

Each year 12.9 million Britons are victims of crime.

Who's angry?

Apart from the above, the Tories are milking this for its political capital, especially following Labour's election-winning mantra: "Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime". Oliver Letwin, the shadow Home Secretary, said the figures were evidence that the Government was "failing" on crime-reduction.

Political damage potential: 3

Prisons

What's the problem?

Dangerous overcrowding. The prison population now stands at 72,000. The prisons are full. And yet politically, despite attempts by the Lord Chief Justice and latterly the Lord Chancellor to open up the debate on the increasingly punitive nature of the sentencing regime followed by the British courts and look at alternatives to prison, come the crunch the Government defaults to its tough-guy act.

How many people are affected?

The 72,000-plus prisoners and thousands of overworked and in many cases harassed prison staff.

Who's angry?

It's a case of damned if you do – the overuse of prison upsets the thinking liberals who believe a civilised society should be able to come up with something better – and damned if you don't – Middle England, the Tories (well, if you exclude the liberal Mr Letwin) and the Daily Mail consider it weak to shrink from incarceration of offenders.

Political damage potential: 2

Railways

What's the problem?

Since becoming Secretary of State for Transport Alistair Darling has thrown into reverse the expansionist policies of his predecessors. Where John Prescott talked of a "new dawn", retrenchment is now the buzzword inside the Strategic Rail Authority. Darling's recent policy document Delivering Better Transport: Progress Report slashes £312m from rail spending and says there may be more to come. Hundreds of cuts to services have already been made across the network and there are more scheduled in May and September.

Who's affected?

Everyone. Fewer trains means more road traffic. Nearly one billion rail passenger journeys are made annually.

Who's angry?

Nearly everyone except SRA chairman Richard Bowker. Wendy Toms, the chair of the Southern England Rail Passengers Committee, calls the cuts an "outrage".

Political damage potential: 4

Air traffic

What's the problem?

National Air Traffic Services (Nats) was part sold to BA, Virgin, easyJet and BMI British Midland in a £765m public-private partnership. However, the deal was flawed as it did not anticipate the transatlantic downturn in air travel after 11 September. The Government is being forced to bail it out. Separately, ministers are also seeking to expand capacity in the South-east, with extra possible runways at Heathrow, Stansted, Gatwick and a new airport at Cliffe near the north Downs.

Who's affected?

All air passengers, as initiatives to reduce delays have been put on ice. Also, people living near airports earmarked for expansion. An airport at Cliffe would have a big impact on ecology and wildlife.

Who's angry?

Labour backbenchers. In opposition the Labour Party claimed that "our air is not for sale". Also, anti-noise and environmental campaigners are gearing up for battle.

Political damage potential: 3

Environment

What's the problem?

Despite a passionate speech by the Prime Minister last month, the environment has been seen as the forgotten challenge facing the Labour government. Yes, initiatives have been introduced to cut the UK's greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent by 2050, to increase the use of renewable fuels to 20 per cent by 2020 and to shun nuclear fuels. But critics insist the strategy has lacked coherence and is doomed to irrelevance anyway if Mr Blair cannot convince his ally, George W Bush, to play ball.

Who's affected?

Everyone on the planet.

Who's angry?

The environmental lobby and, inside government, the frustrated Environment minister, Michael Meacher.

Political damage potential: 2

Housing

What's the problem?

Too many people live in poor-quality housing on run down estates, or are living in cramped accommodation because they cannot afford to buy. Others have mortgages they cannot afford, or live in homes they cannot afford to repair. Last month, the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, announced £22bn plans to improve council housing, rescue deprived communities and – most significantly – a scheme to build 200,000 new homes in the South-east, mostly along the "Thames Gateway" east of London.

Who's affected?

Millions of people, but most notably the residents of the Thames Gateway.

Who's angry?

Residents and councils in the South-east, who fear overcrowding, environmentalists who fear for the future of the green belt and specialists who claim that building in the South will only encourage the depopulation of the north.

Political damage potential: 3

Child Support Agency

What's the problem?

Lone parents receiving Income Support, whose former partners are paying maintenance into the CSA, were promised an extra £10 a week in their pockets from April 2002. But it depended on a new computer system, which has only just became operational, 17 months late.

Who's affected?

About 80,000 parents, almost all single mothers on low incomes, have already lost more than £500 and many others whose names are still not in the new system who have lost smaller amounts.

Who's angry?

The parents obviously, but their voices are seldom heard, and a few sympathetic MPs, such as the Liberal Democrat spokesman, Steve Webb.

Political damage potential: 1

Pensions

What's the problem?

Savings into pension schemes are dwindling. What people thought was a plan to secure a comfortable retirement has turned into a recipe for a struggle through old age. The pensions industry is in crisis thanks to the slump into equities markets and the Chancellor's own "raid" on pension funds. The Government's response has been to do little or nothing radical to help generations to come while trying its best to channel money now towards the worst-off pensioners in Britain.

Who's affected?

Britain's 10 million existing pensioners and many more of us who haven't yet reached retirement.

Who's angry?

Millions over the age of 60 and the organisations and pressure groups that represent them.

Political damage potential: 3

Firefighters' dispute

What's the problem?

Firefighters decided in November to mount a series of strikes rather than accept various pay offers that fell short of their 40 per cent demand. It was the first time in 25 years that firefighters had resorted to picket lines, and the intensity of anti-Labour feeling among the Fire Brigades Union leadership and the hostility of the membership towards Sir George Bain's Government-backed modernisation proposals propelled the dispute on to the front pages. The furore has died down. But the dispute remains unresolved, the latest 16 per cent pay offer now being considered.

Who's affected?

The UK's 60,000 or so firefighters, the skeleton cover drafted in from the armed forces and the thousands of Britons trapped in cars and caught in house fires as the dispute raged.

Who's angry?

Andy Gilchrist, the FBU boss, gets redder by the minute, but the public anger that boosted the strike in its infancy has since waned.

Political damage potential: 2

Union rights

What's the problem?

The unions want enhanced employment rights, but big business – supported by the Confederation of British Industry – considers them a burden. While the trade unions have long been the Labour Party's paymasters, it is to business that the Government has bowed.

Who's affected?

According to the TUC, five million people are suffering discrimination because they are working in small companies that do not have to recognise unions.

Who's angry?

The TUC's General Secretary designate, Brendan Barber, who is keen to make his mark on the issue of union rights, and the increasingly truculent left-leaning trade union leaders – Derek Simpson of Amicus-AEEU and the GMB's John Edmonds to name but two.

Political damage potential: 2

Hunting

What's the problem?

It's an emotive issue that Labour, before the 1997 general election, promised to tackle. There have been repeated pledges to ban fox hunting, but opposition in the House of Lords has blocked attempts to legislate and a recent plan to compromise by requiring hunting to be licensed pleased no one.

Who's affected?

Hunt supporters insist that between 6,000 and 8,000 jobs could be directly lost if hunting were to be banned and that – though all the figures are disputed – an associated 14,000 to 18,000 jobs could be under threat. On top of that are the relatively small numbers who actually hunt.

Who's angry?

On one side Labour MPs, who've promised and voted for a ban – and to a lesser extent the 70 per cent of people who the polls say support them and animal cruelty charities – a vocal, well-organised lobby. On the other side, many Tories, a majority in the House of Lords, the Countryside Alliance and other pro-hunting interest groups.

Political damage potential: 3

Lords reform

What's the problem?

Labour's election manifesto promised to make the House of Lords "more representative and more democratic", but when MPs were given a series of options for reform, they farcically voted each one down in turn.

Who's affected?

640 peers, plus anyone with an ambition to become one. Reformers would claim that it also indirectly affects us all.

Who's angry?

Groups like Charter 88 and the sizeable minority of MPs, including the Commons leader Robin Cook, who care about constitutional reform.

Political damage potential: 1