Blair makes case for war as start of long campaign against terror

The effort to disarm Saddam Hussein is only the start of a campaign to tackle rogue states and international terrorism that will take years, Tony Blair said yesterday.

The Prime Minister went "back to basics" at his monthly press conference in an attempt to convince the country and the Labour Party that military action might be the only way to rid Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction.

Mr Blair looked less relaxed than in his previous hour-long jousting sessions with journalists. For the first time, he brought the press conference to an end before reporters had run out of steam.

The Prime Minister insisted that not much had really changed on Iraq in the past six months; he blamed the recent speculation that war was inevitable on the media vacuum over the Christmas holiday. Privately, ministers admit that Britain and the US have fuelled this perception by deploying military forces to put maximum pressure on Saddam.

Mr Blair tried to tackle the growing perception that war was inevitable last week by saying the United Nations inspectors had to be given "time and space". He was adamant yesterday President Saddam would either give up his weapons, or force would be used against him. Mr Blair's words and body language suggested the odds of a war were 60-40 in favour rather than the 60-40 against offered by Jack Straw last week.

The Prime Minister expressed confidence that the international community would back tough action. But he made clear he would not allow France, Russia or China, the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, to veto military action by the US and Britain.

Blair aides acknowledge that the case for war has gone by default in recent weeks. Mr Blair had few concessions yesterday for anxious Labour MPs, who will be worried by his refusal to guarantee he would take military action only after UN approval.

Although no evidence of a direct link between Iraq and al-Qa'ida has been established, Mr Blair insisted the threats from President Saddam and international terrorism were "two halves of the same coin".

He said: "If we don't deal with it one day we will wake up and one of these countries will have this material and use it, which is one risk. Another risk is that some of it will leach out to these terrorists groups who are complete fanatics, who have no care for human life, and who will use those weapons if they can possibly get their hands on them."

To reinforce his point, he highlighted the nuclear threat from North Korea – another "big problem" that had to be tackled. And he warned that the world would have to deal systematically with rogue states and terrorists. This "new threat" was not going to be snuffed out overnight.

But Mr Blair knows the next general election is likely to be decided by domestic issues and he displayed the Government's jitters over the forthcoming rise in national insurance payments. He said: "We will hold firm to our plans for tax rises in April. Tax rises are never popular, of course we understand that. But at the election we made and won the case for sustained, long-term investment to our public services."

He warned that people would have to pay for services in other ways if Labour did not boost spending – possibly by going private or through social insurance as in France and Germany. He said: "If we want quality public services, we must be prepared to make the commitment necessary to get them, and we must realise also that if we don't put that investment into our public services, from Government, from the State, that people will be required to pay more out of their own pocket for the public services they desperately depend on for opportunity and for social justice."

The Prime Minister suggested Britain would bid to stage the Olympic Games in London in 2012 only if there was a reasonable chance of success. He said: "You can't guarantee these things but are we going to have a realistic prospect of winning? We have to make sure of that before we OK a bid."

The view from Downing Street

Blair On Iraq

"We must uphold the authority of the United Nations. We must show rogue states and terrorist organisations that when we say we intend to deal with the issue of weapons of mass destruction we mean it. The UN has given Saddam a chance for this to be done peacefully, so even now Saddam should take the peaceful route and disarm.

"If he does not, however, he will be disarmed by force."

Blair on tax

"We will hold firm to our plans for tax rises in April. Tax rises are never popular, of course we understand that. But at the election we made and won the case for sustained, long-term investment in our public services.

"For all the problems, if you go to any constituency in the country at the present time you can see too the benefits of that long-term investment in schools, in hospitals, in primary care services. All that has to be paid for and, if we want quality public services, we must be prepared to make the commitment necessary to get them..."

Blair on fire strike

"We believe that strike action is totally wrong, dangerous and unjustified.

"The Government's position remains and it is, we support the Bain reforms, we will hold firm to those reforms and we believe that is the only justifiable basis on which to settle the dispute."