Batley and Spen by-election: Keir Starmer faces critical ‘red wall’ test

Sir Keir Starmer is facing a critical test of his leadership as Westminster awaits the results of a crucial west Yorkshire by-election.

Labour is defending a majority of more than 3,000 in Batley and Spen — a seat held by the party since 1997 — but bookies and pollsters have the Conservatives as odds-on favourites to win.

It comes after the party descended into bitter in-fighting last month following a spate of local election disappointments and defeat in the Hartlepool by-election, which switched to the Conservatives for the first time since the seat was created in 1974.

Ahead of the by-election Sir Keir’s deputy Angela Rayner, who had a dramatic fallout with her boss after the Hartlepool contest, denied she was plotting to replace him.

Thursday’s west Yorkshire contest was at first seen a straight fight between Labour’s Kim Leadbeater — the sister of Jo Cox, who was murdered in the constituency in 2016 — and the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson.

But the arrival of George Galloway in the seat has provided an extra headache for Labour’s campaign managers.

Amid calls from left-wing figures for Sir Keir to step down as Labour leader should the party lose the by-election to the Conservatives, Sir Keir’s official spokesperson was defiant on the eve of voting, insisting he was “not going to resign”.

“Keir has been absolutely clear that this is a four year path to get back into power and he is determined and to lead the party into the next general election and take us back into government,” they added.

However, his position could be destabilised if another MP attracts the support of 40 colleagues — 20 per cent of the parliamentary party — to launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir, who succeeded Jeremy Corbyn in April last year.

Ahead of the result, Sir Keir’s deputy Ms Rayner, said reports in The Times newspaper that she was preparing to mount a challenge were “news to me” amid suggestions that her supporters had began canvassing support of a bid.

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But an ally had told the newspaper: “There’s definitely been people sounding out the possibility – it’s clear she’d easily reach 40 nominations – and urging her to run if the worst happens in Batley.”

An aide to Ms Rayner said said was "focused entirely on her jobs".

Senior left figure Diane Abbott told The Independent earlier this week that the Labour leader could remain “safe” even if the election is lost, due to a lack of “unity” around a replacement candidate.

Ms Abbott, who had previously suggested it would be “curtains” for Sir Keir if the party suffers a defeat in Batley and Spen by-election, said conversations had taken place about the leadership, but that Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, who is unable to stand due to not being an MP, had emerged as the “strongest name”.

She added: “The obvious names have come up, Angela Rayner ... but you wouldn’t necessarily get unity around her at this point. That’s why I think even if we lose Batley and Spen, Starmer can carry on.”

Batley and Spen normally declares between 4am and 6am during elections. But social distancing in the counting hall is expected to delay proceedings –though a low turnout could offset any hold ups.