Brexit: Will EU leaders give Theresa May an extension of Article 50?

Parliament has voted to back an extension to Article 50 – effectively asking for a delay to Brexit.

But the question of a delay isn’t up to the UK – it has to be approved by the EU.

What’s the process for approving an extension?

The UK must request an extension, and all 27 EU leaders must unanimously approve it. That means if one member state disagrees, the whole thing is off.

What conditions has the EU put on extending Article 50?

There could be two types of extension, and Brussels has different thinking on both kinds.

The first is a short extension – perhaps a few months until June. If Theresa May manages to pass the withdrawal deal next week, the EU has indicated it will support such a delay, which it refers to as a “technical extension”.

The purpose of this kind of delay would be to give the UK time to pass all the necessary legislation required to leave the EU. That process could take some time, and certainly can’t happen overnight.

But if no deal has been passed by 29 March, such an extension is the last thing the EU wants to give. The idea of kicking the can a little way down the road is not appealing to EU diplomats.

Michel Barnier summarised their position this week: “Why would we extend these discussions? The discussion on Article 50, that is done and dusted. We have the withdrawal agreement, it is there. That is the question asked and we are waiting for the answer to that.”

A longer extension is a different kettle of fish. European Council president Donald Tusk has said he would recommend accepting a long extension with certain conditions, and Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar has said he would prefer a long one to no deal.

But such an extension, Emmanuel Macron has said, would have to have a “clear objective” and be based on “a new choice” by the British. This is rather cryptic, but could mean either holding a referendum or election to break the deadlock, or perhaps moving red lines on membership of the EU customs union and single market.

Are there any complications?

Plenty. The most obvious is the European parliament elections, which are scheduled for near the end of May. The EU believes that if the UK stays in past this point, the treaties mean it has to participate.

Brussels is worried that not having the UK participate would leave decisions of the EU’s parliament – including the appointment of the next European Commission – open to legal challenge.

Then again, as Leo Varadkar said in February: “A long extension creates a complication in relation to the European elections, but that’s a small complication relative to the impact on our economy.”

When will EU leaders make up their minds?

There’s a meeting of the European Council on Thursday in Brussels where leaders are expected to make a decision. They’ll discuss the issue from 3.30pm local time and an announcement is pencilled on for 7pm – though things could run late!

It’s not confirmed whether Theresa May will address the leaders to make her case, but EU sources say the invitation is open. It would be strange if the prime minister didn’t accept it.

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