What is the UK’s current net migration and what does it mean?

Net migration to the UK has hit record levels but is showing early signs of slowing, according to the latest figures.

Here, the PA news agency takes a look at what the most recent figures tell us.

– What level is net migration at?

Net migration is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country.

A total of 1.18 million people are estimated to have arrived in the UK in the year to June 2023 while 508,000 are likely to have left – a difference of 672,000.

– Has this fallen or risen?

It is slightly complicated. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published an estimate in May this year of 606,000 for net migration for the year to December 2022.

On Thursday, it published a revised figure for that period of 745,000.

Its latest figure, also published on Thursday, for the year to June 2023 is estimated to be 672,000.

So while the latest figure is higher than the original estimate for the year ending December 2022, it is actually lower than the new revised estimate for that period.

– Why was the estimate of 606,000 revised?

The ONS’s deputy national statistician Emma Rourke explained that its most recent migration statistics “are always provisional and supported by assumptions around whether we think people will stay 12 months or more”.

The organisation said in an explanatory blog accompanying the latest release of figures that “provisional estimates will be updated with greater statistical certainty” as further data becomes available, allowing the ONS to understand more about “shifting patterns and behaviours – especially people staying in the UK for longer”.

Ms Rourke added: “We are responding to changes in a highly volatile world and our revisions reflect the unexpected patterns arising from that unpredictability. This will continue to influence our measures of uncertainty.”

While the December 2022 estimates have been revised upwards, the ONS said its net estimate for 17 months ago (June 2022) remained stable “as we now have a better understanding of people’s movements over a 12-month period”.

They have also included, for the first time, measures of uncertainty “to help users see how our confidence in the estimates grows over time”.

– But isn’t it confusing when figures change?

The ONS faces a “trade-off between accuracy and timeliness”, according to Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

She told PA: “The thing that people focus on is the recent figures and I think that they (the ONS) do just face a trade-off between accuracy and timeliness.

“And I think there’s a cost in terms of public trust, of having – even if the revisions are planned – revisions that are really big.”

She said the hope is that patterns will settle down, leaving it easier to predict who will turn out to be long-term and short-term migrants.

– What has driven the rise in recent years and where are people coming from?

Post-pandemic, migration patterns and behaviours have been shifting “considerably”, the ONS said.

More students are arriving and staying for longer. Study was the largest contributor to non-EU immigration in the year ending June 2023, accounting for 39%, followed by work (33% up from 23% the previous year).

More family members, known as dependants, of people with work and study visas have arrived too, the statistics body added.

Most people arriving to the UK in the year ending June 2023 were non-EU nationals (968,000), followed by EU (129,000) and British (84,000).

The ONS said more people are now coming from the likes of China, India and Nigeria.

People arriving on humanitarian routes fell from 19% to 9% in the year to June 2023, with most being Ukrainians and British Nationals (Overseas) from Hong Kong.

– Are the behavioural patterns of migrants likely to stabilise?

With continued policy changes in the area of migration, it is possible that behaviour will keep changing.

“The problem is that if you keep having policy changes and behaviour changes repeatedly, it may never settle down,” said Dr Sumption.

The ONS said while the UK is now seeing fewer Hong Kong British Nationals arriving and even fewer people from Ukraine than a year ago it is “impossible to predict what the future might hold” in the face of other potential urgent international crises.

– But the figures are going down? 

The ONS has said while the latest numbers are down slightly on updated figures for the year ending December 2022, it is “too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend”.

Dr Sumption said that, going on past trends, net migration would continue to fall mostly due to more international students leaving.

But she highlighted other factors which could throw that decline off course including health and care visas which, should they continue to increase, “could have a significant impact, because most are expected to stay in the UK permanently”.

On students, she said that due to the UK generally attracting so many international students “even a small change in the share who remain permanently can have an impact on net migration in the long term”.

– What has the Government said?

Home Secretary James Cleverly said the latest figure “is largely in line with our own immigration statistics” and insisted the Government “remains completely committed to reducing levels of legal migration”.

He said further measures “to prevent exploitation and manipulation of our visa system, including clamping down on those that take advantage of the flexibility of the immigration system”, will be announced “in due course”.