Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

No sign of surge in severe Omicron cases and deaths, says expert

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter said there appears to be a break between the number of cases and severe outcomes.

Nina Massey
Friday 07 January 2022 09:06 EST
An expert has said there is no sign of a surge in severe Omicron cases and deaths (Jacob King/PA)
An expert has said there is no sign of a surge in severe Omicron cases and deaths (Jacob King/PA) (PA Wire)

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

A surge in the number of severe Omicron cases and deaths is unlikely to be seen in the current wave of the pandemic, an expert has said.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter said that while there is no definite severing between the number of Covid infections and hospital admissions, there has been a break between the number of cases and severe outcomes.

The statistician told BBC News that although hospital admissions in London seem to be stable, and perhaps even declining, admissions are rising in other parts of the country.

Sir David, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, said: “The big severing is between really severe outcomes and that there’s still no sign of a serious increase in intensive care, and ventilation, and in deaths.

“We would have expected to see that by now in London and elsewhere – so that is the really reassuring thing.

“I think we can guarantee that over this wave, as we endure the next few weeks, what we’re not going to see is a big surge in very severe outcomes.

“So it’s more a matter of managing this wave that we’re in the middle of. The crucial thing there is the disruption to the NHS and other services.”

Sir David said in December the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) warned that, if only Plan B measures were adhered to, hospital admissions would be likely to exceed 3,000 a day.

However, he said that, while daily cases are currently above 2,000, “with luck” they may not go above 3,000, and the main change has been that people have “voluntarily been very cautious about their behaviour”.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in