UK Covid-19 infections hit two million but rate of increase may be slowing
The jump of 15% is smaller than those seen in recent weeks.
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Your support makes all the difference.Total Covid-19 infections in the UK have climbed above two million for the first time since July, though there are signs the rate of increase may be slowing, figures show.
Health experts said the trend was “encouraging” and the current wave of the virus “may have already peaked”, with Covid-19 hospital numbers appearing to have levelled off in recent days.
But there have been renewed calls for people to take up the offer of an autumn booster of Covid vaccine, with around four in 10 over-75s yet to receive a fresh jab.
Just over 2.0 million people in private households in the UK are likely to have tested positive for coronavirus in the week to October 10, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is up 15% from 1.7 million in the previous week and is the highest total since the week to July 26 – though still some way below the peak of 3.8 million reached in early July, during the wave caused by the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 subvariants of the virus.
The jump of 15% is smaller than those seen in the past few weeks, and while infections have risen in England and Wales, the trend in Scotland and Northern Ireland is described by the ONS as “uncertain”.
Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious diseases at Edinburgh University, said it “appears the current wave is peaking, and may already have peaked at a lower level than previous waves this year.”
Sarah Crofts, ONS deputy director for the Covid-19 infection survey, cautioned it was “too early” to say whether the rise in infections was starting to slow, adding the figures show “a mixed picture across regions and age groups”.
In England, the number of people testing positive for coronavirus in the week to October 10 was 1.7 million, or around one in 30 people – up from 1.5 million, or one in 35, in the previous week.
Wales is also continuing to see a rise, where the latest estimate for infections is 117,600, or one in 25 people, up from 74,900, or one in 40.
The trend is less clear in Scotland and Northern Ireland, the ONS said.
In Scotland the number of people with Covid-19 in the latest survey was estimated at 144,400, or one in 35, compared with 109,700 in the previous survey, or one in 50.
For Northern Ireland the estimate is 44,200 infections, or one in 40 people, compared with 45,100, which is also one in 40.
Infection rates in England are highest among 50 to 69-year-olds, with 3.9% likely to have had Covid-19 in the week to October 10, or around one in 25.
This is up from 3.0%, or one in 35.
Rates are also estimated to have increased among 25 to 34-year-olds but have fallen among over-70s and children between school Year 7 and 11.
For all other age groups, the trend is uncertain.
Professor Woolhouse said it was “encouraging” that prevalence is starting to fall in the over-70s and “this should be mirrored in hospitalisations in the next week or two”.
He continued: “Prevalence remains lowest in young and school-aged children, confirming that the return to school is not the driver of Covid-19 waves.
“It is, however, difficult to know whether or when there will be further waves, not least because we cannot predict the appearance of new variants.”
There is a lag in the reporting of the ONS infection data due to the time it takes for the survey to be compiled.
More recent figures suggest the recent rise in the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 might have levelled off.
A total of 10,387 patients testing positive for coronavirus were in hospital in England as October 19, according to NHS data.
This is down 2% from 10,608 a week earlier and is the first week-on-week fall for just over a month.
Patient numbers topped 14,000 in mid-July of this year at the peak of the BA.4/BA.5 wave.
Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said the trend in hospital numbers means it is “possible that we’re already seeing the benefits from so many people taking up their Covid-19 autumn booster.
“There’s no room for complacency though, as cases could rise again at any point, and we need to be armed in readiness through vaccination of everyone who’s eligible.
“Please come forward for both Covid and flu vaccinations as soon as you’re offered them.”
All people aged 50 and over in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are now able to book an appointment for the Covid-19 autumn booster, providing they had their last jab at least three months ago.
In Scotland, all over-65s are currently eligible for a booster, with bookings opening next week for 50 to 64-year-olds.
Around six in 10 (60.8%) people aged 80 and over in England are now likely to have received an autumn booster, along with a similar proportion (61.9%) of 75 to 79-year-olds, the UKHSA said.