UK Covid cases should drop in next one to three weeks, says expert
Professor Neil Ferguson said schoolchildren may now see a surge in cases of the Omicron variant.

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Your support makes all the difference.Covid cases should start to drop across the UK in the next one to three weeks, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has suggested.
Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London whose data was instrumental to the UK going into lockdown in March 2020, said infection rates may already be plateauing in London and Omicron numbers have been so high they cannot be sustained āforeverā.
He told BBC Radio 4ās Today programme: āI think Iām cautiously optimistic that infection rates in London in that key 18 to 50 age group ā which has been driving the Omicron epidemic ā may possibly have plateaued.
āItās too early to say whether theyāre going down yet, but I thinkā¦ this epidemic has spread so quickly in that group it hasnāt had time to really spread into the older age groups, which are at much greater risk of severe outcomes and hospitalisation, so we may see a different pattern in hospitalisations.
āHospitalisations are still generally going up across the country and we may see high levels for some weeks.
āI would say that, with an epidemic which has been spreading so quickly and reaching such high numbers, it canāt sustain those numbers forever, so we would expect to see case numbers start to come down in the next week, maybe already coming down in London, but in other regions a week to three weeks.
āWhether they then drop precipitously, or we see a pattern a bit like we saw with Delta back in July of an initial drop and then quite a high plateau, remains to be seen.
āItās just too difficult to interpret current mixing trends and what the effect of opening schools again will be.ā
Prof Ferguson said the Omicron variant had not had much time to infect pupils before schools shut for the Christmas break, and a rise in cases is now expected.
āWe expect to now see quite high infection levels ā of mild infection I should emphasise ā in school-aged children.ā
He added that the āgood newsā about Omicron is that āit is certainly less severeā than previous variants of Covid and that has helped keep hospital numbers down compared with previous peaks.
āAnd then the vaccines ā as we always expected they would ā are holding up against severe disease and against severe outcomes well.
āThat doesnāt mean itās not going to be as, as the Prime Minister said, a difficult few weeks for the NHS.ā
Meanwhile, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told Sky News it is not yet certain that future variants of Covid-19 āwill be causing mild diseaseā.
He said more time is needed to evaluate whether the virus will become milder, adding: āIf indeed we do have ongoing problems with more severe disease, updated vaccines for the new variants may be one of the ways that we manage living with the virus in the future.ā
On whether people will need to be vaccinated every six months, Sir Andrew said: āWell, itās just not ā from a global perspective ā affordable, sustainable or deliverable to give fourth doses to everyone on the planet every six months.
āRemember that, today, less than 10% of people in low-income countries have even had their first dose, so the whole idea of regular fourth doses globally is just not sensible.
āNow, it may be that, as the science evolves, that we can work out who the most vulnerable are in populations and target future boosters to those individuals to maintain their protection.
āBut for the vast majority of people who are vaccinated, the risk now is extremely low of severe Covid, for those who have had three doses, and itās likely that weāll reach a point where weāre focusing those booster doses on those who most need them.
āAnd of course, at this moment, we donāt know what that looks like. Does that mean that we need updated vaccines each year like we do with flu? We need more data to make those decisions.ā
It came as minister for vaccines and public health Maggie Throup told broadcasters that the Governmentās Plan B āis workingā.
Asked if ministers are listening to health professionals and prepared to bring in more restrictions, she told Sky News: āAs the Prime Minister said yesterday, we have got Plan B, which is people working from home, the Covid pass, face coverings and obviously the vaccine programme, which is so, so important.ā
She added: āPlan B is working, as you can see from the number of hospitalisations. Itās far, far fewer than this time last year and thatās so important as well, that the vaccines are working, the measures for people to work from home are working.
āThe Prime Minister said that Plan B is working and thereāll be a Cabinet meeting today, and I donāt see any reason why we need to change. Itās important we do follow the data.ā
Ms Throup said she is ānot sureā how many Britons are currently in self-isolation, nor could she put a number on how many NHS trusts have declared a critical incident over Covid-19.
She added: āThe vaccine is working and thatās the best way to stop the transmission, and to stop hospitalisations and for our life to get back to normal.ā
Elsewhere, Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said the staffing situation in hospitals is āalmost impossibleā as leaders try to manage their resources.
He told Times Radio that, for many, āthe most pressing element of allā is the number of staff who are absent due to Covid.
He added that hospital admissions seem to have āperhaps plateaued in London or there may be a second peak after the new year now, but itās rising across the rest of Britainā.
Meanwhile, Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said at least āhalf a dozenā NHS hospitals have declared a critical incident as they try to respond to Covid.
However, the health leader said fears raised before Christmas of a huge rise in the number of seriously ill older people needing critical care and mechanical ventilation has not occurred yet.
āThere are a number of chief executives who are saying, if we were going to see that surge, we probably would have seen the beginnings of it up to now, so there are glimmers of hope,ā he said.